Parlay Fever: Browns-Texans Matchup Offers Max Betting Experience

browns

Doug Upstone

Thursday, November 29, 2018 4:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 29, 2018 4:04 PM UTC

The Houston Texans handled Tennessee with ease and now host the Cleveland Browns, who have gone from the depths of NFL history to just a below average football team. Let's check out the wagering possibilities.

Cleveland (4-6-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Houston (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)Free NFL Picks: Texans ATS and 'Under'Best Lines: Sports Betting

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3452842, "sportsbooksIds":[999991,169,238,19,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3452842, "sportsbooksIds":[999991,169,238,19,1275], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

When the NFL odds were released on this AFC contest, it was not shock and awe, rather, eyebrows raised, followed by an audible "hmmm." The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -6.5 and even after their beatdown of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6.

That's right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home, is thought to be only a field goal better than the Browns. "Hmmm."

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Bring on the Browns.#CLEvsHOU | #DeepSteelSunday pic.twitter.com/fMbCcjsJkG

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 29, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

From here, I decided to try and understand why Houston was not more than touchdown favorite and put on my Pytheas (Greek explorer) mask to seek answers.

Having started the season 0-3 SU & ATS, the Texans were not going to be a public darling, yet, during this winning streak, they are a respectable 5-2-1 ATS. However, coach Bill O'Brien's club has not been dominant, winning five times by a touchdown or less and having a score differential of 8.2 PPG.

Cleveland is a better team since cutting Hue Jackson as coach, and in their past two contests they have whipped Atlanta and Cincinnati.

My various power ratings have Houston winning from 6.5 to 11 points. With this, for NFL picks, the Texans get the call and the Brownies fall to 3-14 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher.

As far as the total of 48, Houston is 15-5 "under" against teams averaging 350 or more yards a game in the second half of the season.

Final score prediction: Houston 27-17

Browns-Texans Teasers And First-Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest:

Side Teaser: Cleveland +12 or Houston Pick
Totals Teaser: Over 42 or Under 54

Based on my score prediction, either is a possible winner for a six-point teaser. However, I do have something to back up supporting the home team more. Houston is 19-1 against a teaser line versus a defensive team allowing 5.65 or more yards a play in the second half of the season.

As far as a teaser total, two elements arose. First, in the past three years when Cleveland is the listed underdog, the average total score is 43.7 PPG. Second, when Houston is at home after gaining 400 or more yards, the final total score has been 43.7 PPG. Take "under" for the back end of this two-teamer.

What is the best first-half bet to make? Likely, this one. Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first-half line such as Cleveland, after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season, is a miserable 5-24 ATS, the last decade.

Browns-Texans Side Prop Bets

Will Either Team Score in the first 6 Minutes of the Game: This really has the feel of a game getting off to a lollygagging start with at best a first down or two for both teams. Let's grab the NO (-125) on this prop.

Longest Touchdown - OVER/UNDER 41.5 yards: This is one of the lower figures we have seen all year on this prop. Nonetheless, with players such as DeAndre Hopkins and Nick Chubb, you are only one play away from a winner. Taking the OVER (-115).

Browns Points - OVER/UNDER 20.5: Found it interesting the juice is on the "over" at -120, compared to -110 on the "under." While it is true Cleveland is scoring more on the road than at home (27.2 vs. 19.5), this Houston defense is tied for sixth in sacks and can create pressure on Baker Mayfield. No problem here taking the "under."

Most Receiving Yards - D. Hopkins -280; Most Rushing Yards - N. Chubb -1400: With the Browns 28th in pass defense, Hopkins is one of the favorites and might be worth considering. Chubb is the fourth choice, but not sure he's a good bet here going up against the Texans' No. 7 run defense.

comment here