Free NFL Picks - Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 4 Predictions

Atlanta Falcons  players celebrating

Thursday, September 29, 2016 2:17 AM GMT

Our sports handicapping professional Ross Benjamin has gone an outstanding 8-2 ATS with his predictions over the past 2 calendar weeks. Go inside to read his betting preview article on Sunday’s Carolina and Atlanta game, and get your free NFL pick on the total.

 

Key NFC South Battle
The Atlanta Falcons (2-1) will host the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers (1-2) on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. These NFC South rivals have seen each of their last 6 games played against one another all go under the total.

 

NFL Week 4 Odds: Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
At the time of this writing (9/28), NFL betting odds at Bookmaker indicates that Carolina is a 3.0-point road favorite. Bookmaker is presently offering 50% cash bonuses on deposits of up to $300.

 

Panthers Stout Defense
Carolina’s defense has held its first three opponents of 2016 to miniscule 273 yards per game. Thanks in part to their offense, they’ve only been on the field an average of only 25:35 per contest. Nevertheless, they’ve done their job well in terms of minimizing opponents offensive possessions, evidenced by allowing them to convert on just 33.3% of their 3rd down attempts. Since 2014, Carolina has held Atlanta to a measly 12.0 points scored per game over the course of 6 contests.

 

Falcons Recent Trends Favor Low Scoring Games
Atlanta has seen 9 of its last 11 home games go under the total. During that precise time period, they were a home underdog 3 times, and each of those games stayed under the total.

The Falcons will be facing a Carolina team which is averaging an impressive 34:02 in time of possession per game. Since 2014, Atlanta has gone 7-0 under the total against teams that average 32:00 or more in time of possession. Those seven contests have averaged just a combined 37.0 points scored per game.

 

NFL Totals Betting Angle and Pick
According to NFL Week 4 odds at Bookmaker, the total in this contest is 50.5. Atlanta is coming off a 45-32 win over division rival New Orleans this past Monday night. This specific data leads us to a betting angle on the total, and it’s been perfect over the last 5 seasons.

Any team (Atlanta) playing in a division game with a total of 49.5 or more, and they’re coming off a division win, resulted in those games going 19-0 under the total since 2012. There was just a combined average of 38.4 points scored per game throughout those 19 contests.

Early public betting has overwhelmingly supported this game going over the total. Although several statistics point toward this to be a high-scoring game, it’s just never that easy. I’m going against public money, and one of my NFL week 4 predictions will be further proof of exactly that.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 50.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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