Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 8

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 2:44 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014 2:44 PM GMT

Swinger’s fade train rolled right along last week but this week he is determined to get off this money burning track and get back in the black in his NFL picks for Week 8.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (9-11, -13.75 units)
I am here to reveal a secret. In the pantheon of NFL quarterbacks ranging from serviceable to legendary I have made the analogous comparison that I am the Bubby Brister of NFL handicapping. Indeed, far removed from the hallowed halls adorning plaques of the greats like Unitas, Montana, Marino and more recently Manning, Brady and Brees yet a guy who wins more than he loses. After Sunday’s day of reckoning I looked myself in the mirror and saw Ryan Leaf staring right back at me.

It was an 0-3 day with the Washington Redskins torturing me for a second straight week as a maximum five-unit play in one of three of my NFL picks. The Falcons and 49’ers were my other two disasters costing us three-units each. But every now and again good quarterbacks have great games. Bubby, here’s looking at you kid.

 

Rams (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Chiefs (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
It’s hard enough to play at Arrowhead Stadium (just ask the Patriots) but when you are coming off one of the most stunning wins of the season there is an element of letdown in the making. The St. Louis Rams shocked the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks with a 28-26 victory when they pulled out all the tricks in their bag and got the job done. If that result was an earthquake then Kansas City’s nifty road win over the Chargers could be considered a fairly sizeable tremor when the Chiefs bolted out of San Diego with a 23-20 victory.

Therefore this play as one of my free picks on the Chiefs would be even stronger had they come off a loss or at least had they defeated a more pedestrian opponent. But the Chiefs boast the 3rd ranked rushing attack led by the immensely talented Jamaal Charles who will be shredding the Rams 28th rushing defense. For those of you that enjoy betting trends and stats here are a few.

  • Underdogs that beat the defending Super Bowl champions as underdogs are 9-16 ATS since 2000

  • Kansas City is 5-1 against the spread versus ST. Louis since 1992

  • Kansas City is 5-1 straight up against ST. Louis since 1992

NFL Pick: Chiefs -6 (buying one full point -130) for 4 units at Pinnacle.com.

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Bills (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Jets (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)
New York looked better in defeat than Buffalo did in victory in Week 7. Geno Smith actually appeared downright solid against the Patriots at Foxboro even though the Jets were ultimately grounded as they watched their last gasp attempt, a 58-yard field goal attempt, get blocked to end the game. Conversely, the Bills were lucky to defeat the Vikings as Kyle Orton clicked with rookie Sammy Watkins with only seconds remaining to propel them to a heart stopping 17-16 home win. Though the Bills fans may have been celebrating it did nothing to assuage the punters who cast their lot with Buffy as 6 ½ -point favorites in NFL odds.

The Jets look to be getting their act together while the Bills are without their top tandem of tailbacks Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller due to injuries sustained last week. Here are a couple NFL betting stats that favor the Jets.

NY Jets have won 9 of the last 12 meetings with the home team has winning the last 5.

True home teams are 17-7 ATS in the Bills last 24 games.

NFL Pick: Jets -2 ½ (-130) for 3 units at 5Dimes.com.

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The Woodman’s Corner (4-3 ATS, +0.7 units)
Our reclusive, mysterious and rather odd handicapper the Woodman backed the Brownies last week only to see them not only fail to cover the NFL odds but losing the game outright to the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. This week he’s got redemption on his mind and has released the Baltimore Ravens +1 ½ to tame the Bengals on the road as his Week 8 NFL pick.

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