Bad beats lead to bad streaks as this NFL handicapper hit a rough patch last week but will be looking to rebound with his bookie-beating picks in Week 7.
Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (9-8, -0.6 units)
Okay look, I will admit my three unit play on Pittsburgh and my two unit play on Minnesota last week had no shot as both teams rolled over faster than a guy on a massage table demanding his happy ending. Not a pretty sight and guilty as charged on both miscues. But the pick-six tossed by Kirk Cousins with 18 seconds which blew the Redskins cover against the Cardinals had me ripping my hair out! It was my biggest play of the week, four units, and it was my baddest beat of the season. I almost forgot about our lone winner, the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars who provided a mere two units of relief as they hung tough enough to the get the ATS cover in NFL odds over the Titans. Big deal.
Falcons (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Ravens (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
The NFL odds opened as Baltimore -6 and that number spiked almost immediately to seven. But that's good for us because we're jumping on this road pup and we're gonna like it! This is a tale of two Week 6 performances. The Ravens obliterated the Bucs while the Falcons were dominated at home by the Bears. That's what the squares will remember and that's why Joe Q. Public will be burying Baltimore in his NFL picks.
However, if you look back just a few weeks you will see that the Falcons also eviscerated the Bucs by the score of 56-14, evidence that the Dirty Birds can score early and often. Atlanta had five dropped balls last week contributing to their unraveling while the Ravens were clicking on all cylinders in their humiliation of Tampa last week. These teams are not that far apart and we will take the generous head start provided by the oddsmakers here.
Free NFL Pick: Play Atlanta +7 ½ (-125 buying a ½ point) for 3 units at Pinnacle.com.
Titans (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) vs. Redskins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) (MAX PLAY)
I backed the Redskins in my NFL picks last week and they absolutely broke my heart and my bankroll when Cousins tossed that pick-six with only seconds left to cost me four friggin' units. But I'm back on these guys because the Titans are pathetic and just the kind of lousy that Washington will bully. The 'Skins traveled to the desert last week and played a stout, though somewhat injured, defensive squad in the Arizona Cardinals. The Titans on the other hand barely escaped with a 16-14 home win over the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars.
Watch Cousins atone for his sins and destroy Tennessee here. I am not screwin' around this week my friends. This is my top NFL pick and I am goin' balls to the walls here boys.
Free NFL Pick: Play Washington -5 ½ for 5 units at Bet365
49'ers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Broncos (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)
For all you stat geeks out there here are some recent betting trends in this one:
49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
Under is 7-2 in 49ers last 9 games overall.
49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The bottom line here is that the 49'ers can bring the kind of defensive pressure that rattles Denver and their offensive line. Though Mile High can be a tough place to play I believe San Francisco will have more than enough to pull the upset here. But just in case, I will take the generous seven-point head start in NFL odds being offered at a few offshore shops like 5Dimes.com.
Free NFL Pick: Play San Francisco +7 (-130) for 3 units at 5Dimes.com.
The Woodman’s Corner (4-2 ATS, +1.8 units)
The Woodman clicked with the Boys last week who not only cover the number in NFL odds but won the game outright over the Seahawks. This week he's coming back with the Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 over their hosts, the Jacksonville Jaguars.