Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 6

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 2:30 PM GMT

This NFL handicapper stumbled last week with a 1-2 record but looks to come back hard with his NFL picks for Week 6, so stay tuned for the destruction.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (8-5, +9.3 units)
Loshak was right dammit. He warned me about betting Tony Romo and the Cowboys -5 ½ in NFL betting odds and I should have listened. They were a big four-unit play and one of three of my Week 5 NFL picks. They won the game 20-17 over the Texans but did not cover the spread and as they celebrated I lamented another blown ATS cover. The money line would have proven to be a worthy investment in hindsight.

We got lucky with a second-half surge by the Carolina Panthers as they covered the 2 ½-point impost with a 31-24 decision over the Bears – good for three-units. However, we waited until Sunday night to find out whether our NFL picks would have us imbibing in Cristal or Budweiser as we backed the Bengals -1 over the seemingly rudderless Patriots in Foxboro.

Well, after the Pats woke up from their deep sleep the week before in KC we were handed a three-unit money burner when they rolled over the Tabby Cats 43-17. It was a 1-2 day and we shed 4.7 units from our bankroll. Not this week though. I am not going to be shy about paying the extra vig and buying points so if you’re naturally averse to laying more lumber than the average 10 percent then get out of the way baby!

 

Steelers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Browns (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS)                           
This game has the familiar air of the public lining up to bet the Steelers as the sharps sit back and watch the line move until they pounce on the hometown Brownies. Look, I will grant you Big Ben and company didn’t exactly bowl me over with their 17-9 victory in Jacksonville but a cover is a cover and the Jags are not as putrid as everyone believes. Oh they’re bad but on any given Sunday…

The Browns on the other hand seem to take the first half off and then put it in high gear as they did last week with a breathless come-from-behind win over the Titans. But Tennessee leaves me cold and the Steelers always prove tough for their divisional rivals. I’m siding with Pittsburgh as slight road dogs and here are a few stats to back me up.

Steelers have won 26 of the last 29 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 36-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Browns are 7-13 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Free NFL Picks: Play the Steelers +3 ½ (buying 1 ½ points -150) for 3 units at Pinnacle.com.

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Jaguars (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Titans (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS)
Who will quarterback the Titans? Who cares?! The Titans are the Jaguars slightly more sophisticated cousins. While the Jags reside in a trailer the Titans are proud owners of a double-wide. Jacksonville is due and the NFL odds eventually even the playing field. The underdog has covered four of the last five meetings between these two cellar dwellers and the Jags are in good stead to hang and bang. Don’t be afraid that the Jags blow because the Titans also share that perverse proclivity.

Free NFL Picks: Play Jacksonville +7 (buying the 1 point -130) for 2 units.

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Lions (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)
I’m getting impatient with Matthew Stafford (fantasy football disaster this season) and his pride of Lions. They lost at home to the Bills last week and have looked disjointed since Calvin Johnson has been ailing. Johnson may sit this one out. Here are a few stats.

Vikings have won 24 of the last 29 meetings.

Lions are 11-24 ATS against losing teams the previous 35 instances.

The Vikes got drilled last week by a Green Bay team that may not play better all year while the Lions simply quit. We will go with the home pup and watch them win outright.

Free NFL Picks: Play Minnesota + 1 ½ for 2 units at Betonline.com.

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Redskins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Cardinals (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
The Cards got drilled last week in Denver and never threatened to cover the NFL odds as eight-point road dogs. They also got injured big time. Calais Campbell their star defensive end is out for this one as is outside linebacker Matt Shaughnessy. In addition nobody knows who will be under center after second stringer Drew Stanton got concussed and gave way to rookie Logan Thomas. It’s a big old fat mess in the desert and this is just the opportunity Washington needs to get well. Watch the talented tailback Alfred Morris get well and the ‘Skins employ the old ground-and-pound to keep this one close.

Free NFL Picks: Play Washington +4 ½ (buying 1 point -130) for 4 units.

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The Woodman’s Corner (3-2 ATS, +0.8 units)
The Woodman fell for the second consecutive week with the Vikings on Thursday night but he’s back with another live dog as he is telling his acolytes to bet the farm on the Dallas Cowboys +8 ½ in his NFL picks for Sunday.