Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 5

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 3:29 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 3:29 PM GMT

Swinger’s free NFL picks continue as he looks to rebound from a 1-1 record last week. Let’s see how the NFL odds stack up as he looks to crush your man in Week 5.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (7-3, +14.0 units)
When you handicap it’s important to listen to those opinions you respect. Sometimes those perspectives can turn a game in which you might ordinarily pass into a viable betting opportunity. Such was the case last week as nothing on the Week 4 slate particularly interested me except a slight lean on the Vikings at home as three-point home underdogs in NFL odds over the Falcons that proved to be a winning two-unit wager.

However, my buddy and handicapping savant the Woodman dazzled me with stats on the Carolina Panthers that caused me to make them a three-unit play over the Ravens. Alas, it was a money burner as Baltimore throttled the Cats (+3 ½ in NFL odds) and caused me to go 1-1 in Sunday’s action. Overall, we lost 1.3 units but are still up 14 units on the season and have nothing to grouse about. Let’s take a look at Week 5 and see if we can bust our bookmaker this week with these free NFL picks.

 

Bears (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
At the risk of going to the proverbial poisoned well yet again, I am again hanging my hat on Cam Newton and the Panthers for the second consecutive week. Carolina opened as 2 ½ point home favorites in NFL odds over the visiting Bears but that has now climbed to three in a few offshore shops. Here are some stats in this one even though the Panthers’ stats in their last game against Baltimore proved to be fatally misleading.

The Bears are 7-18 ATS in NFL odds when playing on six days or less rest over the past three seasons.

The Panthers are 15-11 ATS in NFL odds when playing on six days or less rest over the past three seasons.

The Bears are 1-5 ATS in NFL odds in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons.

The Panthers are 5-3 ATS in NFL odds in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points.

Jay Cutler is 32-59 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Cam Newton is 14-8 ATS off a loss as long as he's not favored by 7.5 or more.

Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Look for Cam Newton to use his legs more in this one and watch the Bears scramble to try and catch him. Once that happens, the Panthers receiving targets will have more open space and Newton will find them while Cutler will throw a pair of interceptions as he tries to climb back in this one after his Bears fall behind early.

NFL Picks: Carolina -2 ½ for 3 units at Pinnacle.com

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Texans (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Cowboys (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
The Battle of the Lone Star State will be held in Dallas this Sunday and all I can say is “How ‘bout the Cowboys?!”. This game was originally being dealt as Dallas -4 NFL odds but that number is long gone and hard to find as of this writing. 5Dimes.com has Dallas -7 but there are better values out there if you like the home chalk as we do.

The Cowboys now have a bona fide rushing attack that ranks 1st in the NFL while the Texans are 24th defending the run. This has allowed the play action pass to open up for Tony Romo and it should be the death knell for the Texans who remain without number one overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney to apply the requisite pressure to keep Romo off his game.

Recent Betting Trends:

Houston is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games.

Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road.

Houston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

NFL Picks: Dallas -5 ½ for 4 units at WilliamHill.com

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Bengals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
I don’t normally bet for or against the Patriots because I’m Boston born and bred therefore I am inherently a bit biased. However, I witnessed the destruction of Tom Terrific and a lackluster Patriots offense at the hands of the Chiefs last week and didn’t just see a tough loss but a changing of the guard. The New England offensive line is in shambles with the departure of All-Pro Logan Mankins. Brady has not weathered the porous nature of his line very well and has been uncharacteristically beguiled by the constant pressure from opposing defensive fronts. He’s got slot receivers but no speed merchants to stretch the field.

Here are a few trends you may want to consider:

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.

Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.

Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.

Over is 3-0-1 in Bengals last 4 games in October

NFL Picks: Bengals -1 for 3 units at Ladbrokes.com

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