Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 4

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 6:18 PM GMT

Swinger’s free NFL picks have been on fire as he looks to continue the groove and make you more cash as the NFL season rolls on into Week 4.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (6-2, +15.3 units)
We cashed two of our three plays last Sunday with our smallest NFL pick flaming when the Houston Texans -1 (-120) cost us 2.4 units as they were defeated soundly by the New York Giants 30-17. However, we did get well when the Cowboys -1 in NFL odds won a hard fought victory over their hosts, the St. Louis Rams by the score of 34-31 for four units. We capped off the day when the Saints -9 ½ (-120 buying the hook) got their first win of the season over the Vikings and covered the spread as well with a 20-9 home victory.

Let’s take a peek at the NFL odds in Week 4 and see if we can manage to keep this money train rolling. And let’s not forget that our special guest handicapper each and every week the reclusive Woodman stands undefeated at 3-0 as he nailed the underdog Kansas City Chiefs +4 1/2 (which settled at Miami-6) that not only covered the point spread but won outright 34-15 over the Dolphins in Miami, proving that the steam doesn’t always win.

 

Panthers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Ravens (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
You need to listen to opinions you respect. You cannot be so blinded by your own views and so intractable that you blithely dismiss any dissenting opinion just because it doesn’t conform to your viewpoint. That axiom holds true not only in life but in sports gambling as well.  I initially made this matchup a pass for me as neither team held any allure but upon further consideration and information I have decided that the Panthers are the right side courtesy of my handicapping sidekick, the Woodman. 

Here are a few stats to consider:

Since 2012, Carolina is 8-4-1 (67%) ATS following a loss

Since 2012, Carolina is 11-5 (69%) ATS as underdogs 

The Cats are even a respectable 10-7 (59%) against the spread on the road during that time

Since 2012, Carolina is 8-1 ATS as road underdogs.  89% - best in all of football during that time

Baltimore's a pedestrian 8-7 (53%) ATS as home favorites since 2012

So with those compelling numbers in mind, I shall banish Carolina’s putrid performance last week against Pittsburgh from my mind and consider that Baltimore struggled in Cleveland this past Sunday despite getting a narrow 23-21 victory over the Browns. 

NFL Pick: Carolina +3 ½ for 3 units at Pinnacle.com

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Falcons (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Vikings (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The squares are going to eat up the Falcons like hot butter on a breakfast toast (thank you Sugar Hill Gang for that reference). Check it out, the Falcons soared to an effortless 56-14 home victory last Thursday night over the woeful Tampa Bay Bucs which means they have had an extra three days to prepare for their sojourn to Minneapolis. Conversely, the Vikings dropped a 20-9 road decision to the Saints and couldn't even cover the NFL odds of despite getting a 10-point head start. 

However, we're sharp and this thing stinks to the high heavens. The Falcons offense ranks numero uno in points scored, passing offense and total offense. But when you decimate a team like the Bucs, it's a surefire way to pad your stats big time. So now they take on the Vikings who looked surprisingly stout surrendering only two passing touchdowns to Drew Brees. Sure their offense is a bit lackluster but I am encouraged by rookie Teddy Bridgewater taking the reins from Matt Cassel (injury) and going to work on a very suspect Falcons defense.

Here are a few stats:

Atlanta is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road

Minnesota is 4-1 straight up in its last 5 home games

Atlanta is 1-8 straight up in its last 9 games on the road

This feels like a trap game to me and I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings defense got into Matt Ryan's face early and often. The Vikings offense may respond to a young gunslinger in Bridgewater who will be eager to prove himself while Atlanta may be basking in the afterglow of a dominating performance against a very bad Tampa team.

NFL Picks: Minnesota + 3 for 2 units at 5Dimes.com.

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The Woodman's Corner (3-0, +3.00 units) - Guest Handicapper
His record speaks for itself and so does his storied handicapping pedigree. He's the man with the plan and fed me all those luscious stats on Carolina, convincing me that the Panthers will feast on the Ravens. To make it official the Woodman advises a play on Carolina +3 ½ in your NFL picks on Sunday.