Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 3

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 5:48 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 5:48 PM GMT

Join Swinger as he attempts to break into double digits for the season with his free NFL picks for Week 3. Find out what his recommended betting strategies are for you to take advantage of here.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (4-1, +9.7 units)
We went 2-1 last week picking all road dogs in our NFL picks and it proved to be good enough to collect 2.7 units after assigning three units to each side. The winning sides were Dallas +4 ½ (-130 buying a full point) over the Titans and St. Louis +7 (-140) over the Bucs. Come to find out we didn’t need any of those points because both pups not only covered in our free picks but won the games outright. 

Those who were more daring than I and eschewed the points in favor of the money line were rewarded with a +140 return on Dallas and +200 on St. Louis. Ballsy bastards. Our lone loser and first on the young season came in the form of a listless performance by the Detroit Lions as they failed as three-point underdogs in NFL odds and dropped a 24-7 decision to the Carolina Panthers.

 

Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Rams (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
I struck paydirt on both these teams last week but only one of them tickles my fancy for a Week 3 NFL pick. As of this writing, Wednesday September 17th, Dallas has been inched to as high as a 1 ½ point favorite from the opening pick’em line on Monday morning. Personally, I’m not surprised.

So essentially what we have is a prolific Dallas offense against what is supposed to be a rugged St. Louis defense. The Cowboys managed 17 points against the elite defense of the Niners and 26 points last week against the Titans. The Rams defense surrendered 27 of 34 total points against the Vikings (with the other seven points a result of a Minnesota pick-six) and then allowed 17 points to a pedestrian at best Tampa Bay offense. 

The bottom line is how will the Rams, who have averaged only 12 ½ points per game, match the Cowboys offensively keeping in mind that Dallas only allowed 10 points on the road to the Titans last week? Are the Rams that much better offensively than Tennessee with their third string quarterback Austin Davis under center? I think not.

Some trends to consider for you stat geeks:

Cowboys are 21-11 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 45-18 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

As of this moment 89% of the money is being wagered on Dallas and if you consider the results of last year’s meeting between these two clubs which occurred almost a year ago to the day, Dallas was a three-point home favorite and decimated the Rams 31-7. Though the venue is different this year have these teams changed that dramatically?  The answer is no.

Free NFL Pick: Play Dallas -1 for 4 units at Pinnacle

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Texans (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Giants (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
The young guns who haven’t been around the treacherous waters of NFL gambling for very long will no doubt be scratching their heads and wondering why Houston has moved from an opening line favorite of -3 in NFL odds to a mere one-point favorite as of this writing. Well, as a guy who been around the block and memorized every address, I’m scratching my head too. And that dear readers makes me a bit nervous.  The Texans will be without the services of the enormously talented Jadeveon Clowney, sidelined 4-6 weeks after undergoing knee surgery, but what have the Giants shown us up to this point besides a team that is in disarray and winless thus far?

I realize the NFL is all about parity and regression to the mean is inevitable. New York is not nearly as bad as their 16 point margin of defeat would indicate nor should we anoint the Texans as the Cinderella story of the 2014 season after only two wins over clubs like the enigmatic Redskins and the hapless Raiders. But can we really bet the Giants even though they will be home this week? 

I would like to load up on the Texans in this spot but Eli Manning is the wild card.  He is neither as good as his supporters insist nor as bad as his detractors claim. But one thing I do know is he has two Super Bowl rings and that makes me cautious. He is also 31-19 ATS as an underdog since 2007. But I am unconvinced that the Giants have a better chance of scoring more than two touchdowns against this retooled Texans defense even without Clowney patrolling the edge. They sure as hell can’t seem to stop anyone else after getting beat 35-14 on the road by Detroit in Week 1 as 6 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds and then getting thumped 25-14 by the Cardinals at home last week as 1 ½ point favorites. I’m on Houston…but I’m nervous dammit!

Free NFL Pick: Play Houston -1 (-120) for 2 units at 5Dimes.com.

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Vikings (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Saints (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
The Saints are 0-2 but can you think of any outcome other than a Saints victory over the ongoing soap opera that is the Minnesota Vikings? I mean the Saints are not a bad team – winless yes – but bad? I don’t believe so even though they did get beat by the Cleveland Browns in the closing seconds as they did against Atlanta in Week 1

Okay, so the Saints defense is lousy and they cannot hold a lead. I get it. But the Vikings were abused last week by the superior New England Patriots and Matt Cassel can’t seem to check down his receivers when he doesn’t have Adrian Peterson in the backfield to buy him an extra precious second in the pocket. I believe Drew Brees is going to go to work in the Saints’ first home game of the season and the Vikings will merely be lambs to the slaughter…or Vikings to Valhalla. 

Here are some trends to consider.

Saints are 33-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 27-16 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Sean Payton is 7-4 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Free NFL Pick: Play the Saints -9 ½ (-120 buying a point) for 4 units at Pinnacle.com.

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The Woodman's Corner (2-0, +2.00 units) - Guest Handicapper
The Woodman cashed last week when he grabbed the points and watched the Chiefs hang tough against Denver at Mile High. This week is déjà vu all over again as he hitches his wagon to that same star and advises a play on Kansas City +4 ½ at 5Dimes.com

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