Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 2

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 10, 2014 2:34 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 10, 2014 2:34 PM GMT

Each and every week during the football season Swinger looks to bust your bookmaker with his free NFL picks so get ready to end your week on a winning note as he reveals his winning selections for Week 2.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (2-0, +7 units) 
*Picks are rated from 1 to 5 units*
I spent Week 1 at a barbecue, courtesy of my good friend Billy the Bull and all the guys were gathered around a 50 inch flat screen that hangs approximately 30 feet from the roasted pig on a spit and a pair of turkeys deep frying in hot oil. The grill was also blazing with a bounty of hot sausages and anatomically correct frankfurters if you happen to be thinking of a career in the porn industry. The sound on the television was turned off so we could hear the local Patriots call on a stereo stashed surreptitiously under the bar. 

As the Pats began to roll one genius asked me what the spread was and I informed him the local entry was a 4 ½ point road favorite over the Dolphins to which he replied, “If I’d known that I woulda buried the Pats!” I immediately thought if bookies took bets halfway through the game we’d all be burying games Big Shot. Of course the big mouth would have lost as the Pats forgot they had to play a second half of football.   

While my heart was with the Patriots, my money along with thousands of chalk-eaters and squares, was on the Jaguars -10 ½ in NFL odds for 4 units and then the Bengals +2 for 3 units. Those were my only two plays on the board, however I was subsequently summoned by the powers that be at SBR to render my free NFL pick on the Giants/Lions clash to which I picked Detroit to cover the 6 ½ point impost. The record I post weekly will only reflect my picks in this column so while I’d love to say I went 3-0, the official record stands at 2-0. Let’s get some more this week.

 

Cowboys vs. Titans
Alright so the Boys are off to Nashville and are hoping they won’t get any more material than they already have about paying your dues if you want to sing the blues. Before we talk about this game, allow me to give you some peripheral stats.  As of this writing 58% of the money is on Dallas which may be why the Cowboys opened as 3 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds but have been bet down to the all-important field goal. Since 2010 the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 44-19 ATS (against the spread) however the flipside of that coin is that the Titans are 21-10 ATS in non-conference home games. 

Last week Jerry Jones’s boys came out on the wrong end of a 28-17 Week 1 home tilt against the 49’ers and burned their backers as 3-point home dogs. The Titans on the other hand waltzed into Arrowhead and came out with a convincing 26-10 win as 3-point road dogs in NFL odds.  It looks like one team has their mojo while the other is looking for it. Over the last three seasons Dallas is 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 6-2 as a road dog of three points or less. 

I’m looking for a big rebound by a Cowboys team that was clearly overmatched last week against a Super Bowl contending Niners squad but will easily solve any defensive riddle presented by the Titans. Join me in welcoming Dallas to their debut road win of the 2014 season.

Free NFL Picks: Play Dallas +4 ½ (-130 buying a full point) for 3 units at Pinnacle.com for one of your NFL picks this week. 

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Lions vs. Panthers
In the interest of full disclosure, yet again, I am as high on the Lions as a redneck huffing a can of spray paint. I picked them to cover the number last week over the Giants and also predicted on my preseason podcast with our very own Peter Loshak that they were one of my targeted teams in NFL futures that would go ‘over’ the offered season win total of 8 ½. They did not disappoint last week and I like them again this week. 

The Panthers were of course without Cam Newton but Derek Anderson performed solidly in relief leading the Cats to a 20-14 road victory over the woeful Bucs.  There was no pressure of any consequence created by Tampa Bay and even though Newton will be back under center with a rib injury that I am sure is still tender, the Panthers will be no match for a swarming Lions’ defensive blitz package and an offense that is the envy of virtually every team in the league. And for all you guys who love betting trends, teams coming off Monday Night Football wins of 20 points or better are 29-9 ATS the following week since 2005. The Panthers are 38-48 ATS at home since 2003. Don’t over think this one in your NFL picks – just bet it.

Free NFL Picks: Play the Lions +3 (-120) for 3 units at Ladbrokes.com.

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Rams vs. Buccaneers
Can someone tell me why the Bucs are 5 ½ point favorites in NFL odds in most shops while getting a full touchdown at 5Dimes.com against, well, anyone? Did we not see them get thoroughly dominated for three quarters against the Panthers until the legendary Josh McCown struck for two TD passes late against the old prevent defense of the Carolina. Doug Martin gained nine yards on only nine carries. Lovie Smith’s debut was disappointing to say the least and the Bucs don’t look any different from the cellar dwellers they were last season.

The last time I checked, St. Louis was touted as having a rock solid defense that held Adrian Peterson in check last week but was burned by an ineffective offense that constantly kept them on the field with their backs against the wall. The 34-6 beating they took will only make the public want to fade them even more especially since Sam Bradford’s back-up Shaun Hill looked so inept. But Hill is not that bad and reportedly played with a quadriceps injury that sent him to the bench after the first half. Hill is questionable to go this week but even if second year man Austin Davis is under center I don’t see the Tampa defense rattling anyone’s cage.

Let’s not forget that head coach Jeff Fisher is a damn good coach who makes the necessary adjustments. Fisher is 40-27 ATS in NFL odds as an underdog while the Bucs are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 home games. The public is buying what Tampa Bay is selling attracting 64% of the money on this one but we won’t be fooled because the bottom line is that even though the Rams are without their field marshal Sam Bradford for the rest of the season they are more than capable of beating the bottom feeders like the Bucs.

This line opened with Tampa Bay being installed as three-point favorites and it has climbed dramatically to as high as -7 (-140) in offshores like 5Dimes.com. Remember boys and girls, the Bucs have a Thursday night date in Atlanta so they may be overlooking a banged up Rams team on Sunday afternoon. You wanna give me a touchdown head start against the Bucs? All-day-long.

Free NFL Picks: Play the Rams +7 (-140) for 3 units at 5Dimes in your NFL picks.

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The Woodman's Corner (1-0, +1 units) - Guest Handicapper
Anyone that has been following the Woodman for lo these many years understands he loves double digit NFL underdogs like a fat guy loves a free buffet. That being said, the Woodman is telling all his disciples to bet the farm on the Kansas City Chiefs +13!

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