Swinger swept the board last week with his NFL picks and his 3-0 record brought home 11 units for those whose faith never wavered. Here are his top recommendations for Week 16.
Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (22-22, -18.65 units)
As the NFL season winds down I am looking at a .500 mark, down over 18 units on the season. Despite sweeping the board last week I am far from enthusiastic and understand that with only two weeks in the regular season to go and the playoffs looming I have to get a whole lot sharper than what I have demonstrated thus far. Perhaps all those bad beats are behind me and the ball will now mercifully bounce my way.
As I peruse the NFL odds for Week 16 there are a few angles that strike my fancy and I can only hope that last week portends a wildly successful end of the season and a sensational postseason run. Let’s do this, kids.
Vikings (6-8 SU, 9-5 ATS) vs. Dolphins (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Quite frankly I was surprised to see that the NFL odds on this game had the Fins listed as a touchdown favorite particularly in light of the fact that they have failed to cover the number in their last three contests and have averaged only 13 points per game. Miami’s playoff aspirations were dashed last week when the Patriots throttled them to the tune of 41-13.
The Vikings on the hand have been playing better and Teddy Bridgewater appears to be getting acclimated to the hyper-speed tempo of the NFL. Minnesota has covered their last four games and their sixth ranked passing defense should ensure that Miami take to the ground as opposed to the air.
I believe there is a decent chance that Minny pulls the upset but rather than get greedy and bet this game on the money line, I will happily grab the points that the NFL odds makers are giving us.
Free NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings + 7 ½ (-135) for 4 units at 5Dimes.com.
Falcons (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) vs. Saints (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS)
Could the Falcons possibly be facing a worse matchup than Drew Brees and the potentially explosive offense of the New Orleans Saints? This is the very worst passing defense against the 3rd ranked passing offense so to answer my question – yes, there are two other matchups that could potentially be worse but why quibble? Drew Brees is at home and outside the 31-10 aberration in Carolina his team has been scoring in bunches recently. The Falcons have a very good passing attack of their own but they break down when behind. I cannot see a world in which Matty Ice outguns Drew Brees in this one and once Atlanta gets behind Matty will be tossing up more Hail Mary’s than Our Lady of the Suffering Nuns.
Free NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints -5 ½ for 3 units at Pinnacle.com.
Chiefs (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) vs. Steelers (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) **MAX PLAY
I am diggin’ this matchup big time. Love it, love it, love it and love it a little bit more. The Chiefs are going to feel the pain of the Steelers this Sunday and their 31-10 revenge slaying of the Raiders last week does nothing to allay my enthusiasm for including the Pittsburgh Steelers as my NFL Pick of the Season.
Here’s the deal. The Steelers offense has been suh-mokin’ down the stretch while the Chiefs dropped three straight up and against the number before they got a scheduling reprieve and faced the hapless Raiders last week. This week they are back to reality where they will be forced to run against a very good run stop unit of Pittsburgh (ranked 10th). The Chiefs cannot pass to begin with (ranked 30th) and they won’t even dare to do so until they fall far behind.
The Steelers on the other hand have Big Ben pulling the trigger as he leads the 2nd ranked passing attack but that will come only after Le’Veon Bell runs the Steelers 11th ranked rushing attack over the Chiefs 28th ranked rushing defense. Once the run softens up the Chiefs defense look for Roethlisberger to use play action to go deep and torch the Chiefs all afternoon.
Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 for 5 units at Pinnacle
The Woodman’s Corner (7-8 ATS, - 1.7 units)
The Woodman’s dogs howled for the second consecutive week as the Vikings clicked in his NFL picks last Sunday. This week he is staying true to form and backing another underdog as he declares the Arizona Cardinals will soar at home when they take on the Seattle Seahawks. Play the Cards + 8 so sayeth the odd and mysterious Woodman.