Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 11

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 9:58 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2014 9:58 PM GMT

Swinger continues to grind it out going 2-1 last week with his top play, the Detroit Lions, edging the Dolphins for an ATS cover and another winner in his NFL picks.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (14-14, -7.35 units)
So we went 2-1 last week in our NFL picks with the Lions eking out an ATS cover over the Fish for a four-unit winner. We also had a relatively easy cover in a rare total play as the Chiefs and Bills fell far short of the posted total of 42 in NFL odds as they combined for only 30 points. Our lone loser was with the underdog St. Louis Rams as they looked like money in the bank until their fourth-quarter meltdown to the Cardinals. When the dust settled we shaved 3.7 units off our deficit and looking to damage in our Week 11 NFL picks. Let’s go!

 

Falcons (3-6 O/U) vs. Panthers (6-4 O/U) (MAX PLAY)
Cam Newton has looked dazed and confused throughout this season and never more so than after his head-scratching performance on Monday night where the Cats came in as 7 ½ point underdogs in NFL odds to the Eagles and were throttled by the score of 45-21. The Panthers have allowed 37 PPG in four of their last five contests.

The Dirty Birds last five games have gone under the posted total in NFL odds but take a gander at what they have allowed in all of those “low scoring” affairs; 30 points to the Giants, 27 to the Bears, 29 to the Ravens, 22 to the Lions and 17 last week to the anemic Bucs. Factor into this equation that the Panthers cannot stop anyone either and you have the potential for a boatload of crooked numbers and plenty of scoring changes.

NFL picks: Play Over 46 for 5 units at Pinnacle

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Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Bears (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)
This is a great time to jump on the Bears kids because they are the laughingstock of the NFL at this moment in time. We all knew the Raiders, Bucs, Jets and Jaguars were going to tank even before the season started but the Bears were Super Bowl bound in more than a few preseason prognostications. And now the Bears are being accused, rightfully I might add, of quitting on their coach Marc Trestman. However, we are not going to be bandwagon jumpers and fade the Bears, because one thing they have the potential to do is score. Cutler may not be on everyone’s Christmas card list and he can be confounding at times as he often tosses inexplicable interceptions but the Vikings will not be able to stand and trade with the Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday.

In the last three years the Vikes are 1-6 ATS in NFL odds in road games where the total is 45 ½ to 49 as it is here. I have no clue why anyone would bet the rent based on that NFL betting trend but some of you guys and gals love those stats!

NFL picks: Play the Bears -3 for 2 units at Bet365.com

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Raiders (0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Chargers 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Maintaining perspective is essential if you want to make money in your NFL picks. Teams are never as good or as bad as they appear on their best and worst days. It’s kind of like hot women. Take Britney Spears for example. She was initially a smokin’ nubile nymph that lecherous middle-aged men would ogle but never admit as much to their teenage sons who were exactly her age. Then fame and fortune went to her head, she fell off the rails, shaved her head, packed on more than a few pounds and suddenly she was no longer boner-worthy. But now she has shed those lbs., gotten back in shape and grown out her hair so once again red-blooded American males can feast their eyes and fan-ta-size.

This analogy pertains to the San Diego Chargers. The first half of the season they were Jessica Alba material but now they have been relegated to nerdy girl with acne status. Yes, they looked miserable in their last outing where they were decimated by the Dolphins 37-0 before their bye week and prior to that they failed to cover in NFL odds in their previous three outings (four straight) which included a narrow 31-28 decision over the Raiders in Oakland.

The Chargers are not Jessica Alba but they’re not the homely chick from The Middle either. San Diego has a golden opportunity to prove that with the right lighting and makeup, they are perfectly doable…I mean bettable.

NFL picks: Play the Chargers -9 ½ (-120 buying a ½ point) for 4 units

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The Woodman’s Corner (5-5 ATS, - 0.4 units)
The Woodman loves underdogs like Paris Hilton loves books with lots of pictures. His point-grabbing ways cost him last week after the Giants were throttled by the Seahawks.

This week we find ourselves on opposite sides of the fence as he is backing the Vikings +3 in his NFL picks while I have the Bears in this Midwest showdown.

 

 

 

 

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