Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 10

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 6:07 PM GMT

Our expert capper has been trending up in his NFL picks recently and has a handful of games this week that he is locked on and looking to cash against the NFL odds in Week 10.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (12-13, -11.05 units)
The St. Louis Rams only have three wins this season but two of them are over NFC powerhouses Seattle and San Francisco. And that win over the Niners cost me four freakin' units last week and any hope I had of sweeping my NFL picks in Week 9. The good news was that we had a three-unit play on the Vikings who narrowly covered the 2 ½ point impost over the Redskins and a four-unit cash cow on the Chiefs who vanquished the lowly Jets and covered the NFL odds with ease. When the smoke cleared we went 2-1 and carved 2.6 units off of our deficit.

 

Chiefs (2-6 O/U) vs. Bills (2-6 O/U)
There just has to be a regression to the mean for the Chiefs as they have not only won three straight but covered in six of their last seven games in NFL odds. Meanwhile, the Bills have won their last pair of games and throttled the Jets before their bye last week.

The Chiefs may be due for a letdown but I'm not betting against them. However, what I am willing to do is bet that this will be a defensive struggle with the KC boasting the top rated passing defense in the league while the Bills are ranked 8th defending the run and a respectable 13th against the pass.

Meanwhile neither Alex Smith nor Kyle Orton will remind anyone of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. I see a grindy game here on what is forecasted as a cold blustery day in Buffalo with a chance of rain. Forget about the side and play the total in this one.

NFL picks: Play Under 42 for 3 units at WilliamHill.com.

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Dolphins (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Lions (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Gamblers are down on the Lions, even though they stand at 6-2 on the season and have won three of their last four straight up, because their performances vis a vis the NFL odds shows them failing to cover in three of those last same four contests. And let's not get started with Matt Stafford's underwhelming fantasy football season and Calvin Johnson's injury plagued campaign decimating any chances I had of winning my FFL leagues this season. But I digress...because I'm pissed.

Anyway, the Lions are back from their dalliance with the Falcons across the pond where they scored a 22-21 victory in Old Blighty over the Falcons but failed to cash as three-point betting favorites. Detroit has had two weeks to get ready for this one and now they are seemingly healthy with Megatron expected to return as is Reggie Bush to name a few.

The Dolphins have looked terrific lately and that's why the NFL odds on this one are what they are. Miami has won and covered four of their last five with no bigger victory than last week when they crushed the Chargers 37-0 at home.

But this is the National Football Lottery my friends and parity reigns supreme. The Lions are 6-2 in spite of not having all their weapons this season and are due for a blowout. The Fins are stout defensively but so too are the Lions that boast the 5th ranked passing defense and the 2nd ranked run stop unit. Ryan Tannehill is not going to single-handedly muscle Miami to victory against a defense like Detroit's. Nope, this is going to be a Motor City Shakedown and the Fish are gonna get hooked.

NFL picks: Bet the Lions -2 ½ (-120) for 4 units at Pinnacle

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Rams (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Cardinals (6-2 SU, 2-5-1)
The Cardinals are getting a whole lotta love (that's for all you Zepplin fans) after reeling off six of seven straight up wins and ATS covers. Last week they opened up as four-point underdogs in NFL odds to the Cowboys but by the time they kicked off, the sharps had bet this one all the way down to a pick in some offshore shops. The Cardinals did not disappoint their backers as they spoiled the party at Jerry Jones' billion dollar playground with a 28-17 road win in the Lone Star State.

The Rams shocked their second NFC powerhouse in three games as they stunned the Niners only two weeks after shocking the Seahawks. Wedged in between was a pitiful display at Arrowhead Stadium where they were throttled by the Chiefs. But even teams like the Patriots have been dismantled in that decibel shattering environment.

I like the Rams as a decent sized underdog here. I realize this could be a letdown for them after defeating the Niners on the road but I'm not convinced that the Cardinals, ranked 16th in passing yardage and 28th in rushing while having the dubious distinction of possessing the worst pass defense in the league can get too far in front of what is a gritty and hardworking Rams club. St. Louis ranks 8th defending the pass and I am convinced they can hang and bang with an Arizona squad that I believe has already peaked.

NFL picks: Play the Rams +8 for 3 units at 5Dimes

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The Woodman’s Corner (5-4 ATS, + 0.7 units)
The Woodman loves those pups and the puppies love him right back as the Oakland Raiders were getting a mile long head start last week in their NFL odds when they visited CenturyLink Field, home of the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, and hung tough enough to cover the number as double digit doggies in a 30-24 loss to the champs.

This week our fearless handicapper goes back to his tried and true strategy by backing another big underdog and this time it's the NY Giants +9 on the road in Seattle.