Free NFL Picks for Buccaneers vs. Texans

David Lawrence

Sunday, September 27, 2015 10:44 AM GMT

Tampa Bay looked much better in a win at New Orleans than their Week 1 opener at home against Tennessee, while Houston comes into this game 0-2 after losses to Kansas City and at Carolina. Can J.J. Watt and the Houston defense disrupt Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense at home?

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -7 -105 at Pinnacle
This NFL odds opened at -7 for Houston at home, which is fair considering it's a rookie quarterback in Winston facing Watt and a defense that has been inconsistent to start the season. The Texans have lost both games by seven points each, trailing at the half in both games, so they need to get out to a quicker start. Meanwhile, the books probably don't have much confidence in the Bucs yet, because even though they beat the Saints on the road, the Saints aren't the Saints that they used to be, and it's hard to forget how bad Tampa Bay looked in their 42-14 thrashing against Tennessee in the first week. The public isn’t clearly on any one side here.

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Injuries
TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins was the Bucs' leading receiver through two games, but he might be out until Week 7 due to a shoulder injury, which means WR Mike Evans (hamstring) has to play a bigger role after being eased into the lineup last week. Other than that, the Bucs are pretty healthy.

WR DeAndre Hopkins has a concussion and he'll be checked right up until gametime to see if he can go, while RB Arian Foster is practicing, but his groin won't let him back in the lineup just yet. Up front, T Jeff Adams (knee) is gone for the season, while fellow T Duane Brown (thumb) is a doubt as well.

 

Trends
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games, but a decent 5-5 ATS and they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the road. Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five, and they've covered in just two of their last seven at home. The total, which is at 40.5, will be something to watch as the Bucs have gone under in five of their last six on the road, while Houston has gone over in five of their last seven at home.

These two have met just three times since 2003, with the Texans winning and covering twice, including at home in 2007. The two have also gone over the total twice in those three games.

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