Free NFL Picks: Bills vs. Pats Will Be Lower Scoring Than You Think

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 4:34 PM GMT

An AFC showdown awaits Monday night as the Patriots welcome Rex Ryan and the Bills to Foxboro. Let’s take a look at what the NFL odds makers are hanging on this total and cash in our NFL picks.

Wounded Warriors
The Patriots are getting hurt and we’re not talking about backups either. The injury bug has bitten a choice chunk off of Belichick’s crew with scat-back Dion Lewis lost for the year and now Julien Edelman done for the regular season with a fractured foot. Superstar-in-the-making linebacker Jamie Collins has missed two games with a virus but that should not be a long term situation and he will most likely suit up Monday night. But some of the other moving parts have been sidelined and that has come at the expense of the offensive line with Nate Solder done for the season with a torn biceps and Sebastian Vollmer, Tre’ Jackson and Marcus Cannon all injured to varying degrees. Whatever potion the Evil Genius (Bill Belichick) is concocting it appears to be working because his plug-n-play, next man up approach has been astoundingly seamless in its protection of Tom Terrific.

The Patriots were able to deliver a victory over their storied adversaries the New York Giants in heart stopping fashion, rallying from a two-point deficit in the waning moments of the game. However it was a different New England offense without the services of slot receiver Julien Edelman who went down at the end of the first quarter. The offense was not as efficient nor was Brady able to trigger his quick release that has scorched defenses throughout the season. New England boasts the 2nd ranked passing and scoring attack averaging 325.9 yards per game and 33.4 points per game respectively. Defensively they are also stout holding opponents to 18.8 points per game which places them 4th in the league.

 

Bills Scoring Soaring
The Bills’ success this season was predicated around a Rex Ryan tough defense but it has been their offense that has produced arched eyebrows this season. Tyrod Taylor has added a new dimension and the backfield that was supposed to feature LeSean McCoy exclusively is now a two-headed monster with surprising contributions by fifth round draft pick Karlos Williams to shoulder some of the load. That tandem has produced the 2nd best rushing attack averaging 142.3 yards per game. The ability of the ever mobile Taylor to spring from the pocket and chew up yardage has certainly boosted those numbers but the Bills live and die on the ground which is something we should consider when choosing whether to go low or high in our NFL picks for this one.

 

NFL Pick
The NFL odds makers opened this total at 49 ½ which is an important number as it equals exactly seven touchdowns. It’s great if you want to go low but could be a gut wrenching blown cover if you bet the over. Nevertheless, the line has now dropped to 48 ½ which is not good news for us because we believe the under will cash in this one. The Patriots will be handing the ball off to LeGarrette Blount more often as the elusive Edelman will not be there to collect on Brady’s passes. Danny Amendola will fill that role but he won’t replace Julien Edelman in terms of effectiveness.

Conversely we have a Patriots defense that is led by the NFL’s sack leader Chandler Jones who has taken his game to a whole new level this season. Taylor will not be able to squirm and shimmy his way out of trouble against a Patriots defensive front that has 30 sacks on the season which puts them above everyone with the exception of the Denver Broncos. I see this as a grind it out game with both teams looking for time possession to chew up yards on the ground as the minutes tick off the clock. While neither team is a top ten passing defense it won’t matter as much this time around as New England will need to be more conservative and Tyrod Taylor will not have the luxury of checking off his targets against a swarming New England rush.

NFL Pick: Play Under 48 ½ (I suggest you buy the hook to 49 just in case) at GTBets

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