Free NFL Picks: Betting Trends to Conquer Week 11

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:49 AM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 11:49 AM UTC

In this column we sift through all the SU, ATS and Total trends that apply for week 11 matchups in the NFL, most of which you’ll find helpful when making your NFL picks. Let’s get started.

Titans vs. Jaguars
Titans are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS on the season with a 5-point losing margin. On the road, they are 2-2 SU and ATS with a 1.5-point losing margin. Going into week 11 NFL betting, they are coming off a loss to the Panthers at home. Jaguars are coming off an upset over the Ravens in week 10 NFL betting on the road. Overall, they are 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS with a 7-point losing margin. At home, they are 2-2 SU and ATS with a 4-point losing margin – albeit this includes a 34-31 win over the Bills in London, which was a home game the Jaguars sacrificed this season. Past trends reveal the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last five games between this pair; however, the Titans are sporting a new look with Marcus Mariota this season and this is the first time these divisional rivals collide this season before renewing hostilities in week a couple of weeks.


Broncos vs. Bears
Denver Broncos are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS this season with a 4.1-point winning margin. Most recently, they are riding a two-game losing streak with a loss in Indianapolis and a loss at home to the Chiefs. Crucially, Peyton Manning has been ruled out for this game, which would have marked a happy reunion between Manning and former coach John Fox. Brock Osweiler is set to get the start, which thrusts this Broncos team up in the air so to speak. What can Denver fans expect from the Broncos with Osweiler calling the shots remains to be seen. As far as the Bears are concerned, John Fox has them playing much better football. They are riding a two-game winning streak behind wins over the Chargers and Rams, both of which were on the road. Overall, Bears are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS with a 3.9-point losing margin. At home they are 1-3 SU and ATS with an 8.5-point losing margin.


Cowboys vs. Dolphins
The 2-7 SU Cowboys welcome Tony Romo back in week 11 for the clash with the Miami Dolphins on the road. The Cowboys are riding a seven-game losing streak and desperate to get back into the win column. It remains to be seen whether the problems the Cowboys endured during his absence end with his return or whether they in fact run deeper than most believe. Meanwhile, the Dolphins avoided a three-game losing skid with a narrow 20-19 win over the Eagles on the road. Overall, the Dolphins are 4-5 SU and ATS with 3.8-point losing margin. Under Dan Campbell, they are 3-2 SU and ATS beginning with the week 6 win over the Titans. Past trends reveal the Dolphins are 1-5 SU against Dallas in the last five games.                                                                                


Raiders vs. Lions
Raiders are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS with a 1.6-point losing margin and coming off a home loss to the Vikings in week 10 NFL betting. On the road, they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 2.5-point winning margin. Lions are coming off only their second win of the season but it was a big one. They beat the Packers at Lambeau to improve to 2-7 SU overall on the season, as well 2-7 ATS with a 10.4-point losing margin. Despite last week’s contrasting fortunes, the NFL odds makers rolled out this matchup on EVEN odds. Early indicators have pushed the Raiders into favourite plains at most sportsbooks around the -1.5-point mark. By the stats, the Raiders are 0-2 ATS this season as the favourites with a 9-point losing margin. As road chalk, they are 0-1 ATS with a 2-point losing margin.


Colts vs. Falcons
Andrew Luck is out for at least 2-to-6 weeks, making way for 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck to lead the Colts into the Georgia Dome. The Colts are 4-5 SU and ATS with a 3-point losing margin. Colts snapped a three-game losing streak with a big win over the Broncos at home before heading into a week 10 bye. The Falcons, meanwhile, have lost some of their edge lately. After starting with a 5-0 SU mark on the season, they’ve won just one of their last four games. Interestingly, they are 2-3 SU in their last five games and 0-5 ATS. At home, they are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS with an 8-point margin of victory.


Rams vs. Ravens
The Rams are 4-5 SU and ATS with a 1.9-point losing margin on the season. They are coming off a loss to the Chicago Bears at home, all while installed as the whopping 7-point home chalk. On the road, they are 1-3 SU and ATS with a 7.2-point losing margin. The Ravens are 2-7 SU on the season and 1-7-1 ATS with a 2.9-point losing margin. Against the spread, they rank the worst in the NFL after nine games played. Most recently, they are coming off a 22-20 loss to the Jaguars at home all while installed as the 4.5-point home chalk. In their last five games, they are 1-4 ATS and at home they are 0-4 ATS this season with a 1.5-point losing margin.


Redskins vs. Panthers
The Panthers are 8-0 SU and 7-2 ATS with an 8.9-point winning margin. At home, the Panthers are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS with a 6.8-point winning margin. As favourites, the Panthers are 5-2 ATS with a 9.7-point winning margin. The Redskins are 4-5 SU and ATS on the season with a 0.4-point losing margin, but all of their success has come at home. On the road they are 0-4, extending their winless road form to eight games going back to 2014 and their last road win against Dallas in week 8. Since 2014, the Redskins are a league worst 4-8 ATS with a 9.1-point losing margin.


Bucs vs. Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS with a 5.1-point losing margin. On the road, they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 0.2-losing margin, which includes an upset over the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome three weeks ago. The Eagles are 4-5 SU and ATS with a 3.1-point winning margin. At home, they are 2-2 SU and ATS with a 7.8-point winning margin. That said the Eagles are coming off a 20-19 loss at home to the Eagles with Sam Bradford leaving the game with an injured shoulder. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be back for this Sunday’s clash with No.1 draft pick Jameis Winston and the Bucs or whether Mark Sanchez will start in relief.


Jets vs. Texans
Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to return to Houston to take on the Texans in week 11 NFL betting for what should be a thrilling contest against his former teammates. The Jets are 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS with a 3.7-point winning margin. They’ve only won one of their last four games and are 0-3-1 ATS over the course of those. The Texans, meanwhile, are yet to play MNF. They are 3-5 SU and ATS with a 3.9-point losing margin – they’ll either improve to 4-5 SU or slip to 3-6 SU at the conclusion of their clash with the Bengals. That said at home they are 2-2 SU and ATS with a 2.5-point winning margin.


Chiefs vs. Chargers
The Chiefs upset the Broncos at Mile High to improve to 4-5 SU and ATS with 3.2-point winning margin. All of a sudden, they are right in the thick of the AFC West mix, level 4-5 SU with the Raiders and behind the 7-2 Broncos. Chargers, meanwhile, prop up the AFC West with a 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS mark highlighted by a 4.3-point losing margin. Philip Rivers was not a happy bunny following the MNF loss to the Bears last weekend, which marked a fifth straight loss for the Chargers on the season. By contrast, the Chiefs are riding a three-game winning streak which includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark. Keep that in mind for your NFL picks with your sportsbook of choice.


Niners vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are riding a two-game losing streak at home behind losses to the Panthers and Cardinals. They are down to 4-5 SU and 2-6-1 ATS with a 2.2-point winning margin, all while their playoff hopes appear to be dwindling fast. The Niners are in worse shape though with a 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS mark underscored by a 10.8-point losing margin. Seattle is 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last ten meetings with San Francisco.


Packers vs. Vikings
The Packers are enjoying three-game skid which began with a loss to Denver Broncos on the road in week 8 NFL betting. They slipped to a second consecutive defeat in Charlotte in week 9 NFL betting. Last Sunday’s loss to the Lions, however, was the biggest shocker of all as it marked the first loss to the Lions at home in almost a quarter century. Now, the 6-3 SU Packers (also 5-4 ATS with a 3.8-point winning margin) take on a second straight divisional rival in week 11. The Vikings 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with a 4.9 winning margin lead the NFC North. They are surprising many NFL bettors with the season they are having and punching above their perceived weight class. They are riding a five-game winning streak into week 11 and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. The UNDER has cashed in all but one of Minnesota’s games this season – they are 1-7-1 in O/U betting.


Bengals vs. Cardinals
The Bengals are to close the book on their MNF clash with the Texans in week 10 NFL betting. It remains to be seen whether they enter week 11 as the third undefeated team this season or whether they slip to an 8-1 SU mark. In any event, they are hitting the road for week 11 to take on the Arizona Cardinals, flush off a road upset over the Seahawks. Bengals are 4-0 SU and ATS on the road with a 10.8-point winning margin. Cardinals are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS with an 8.9-point winning margin. At home, they are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS with a 14.5-point winning margin. On the season, the Cardinals lead the NFL with a 7-2 OVER record, which includes back-to-back OVERS in their last two games. At home they are 3-1 in O/U betting.


Bills vs. Patriots
The Bills and Patriots round out week 11 NFL betting with Rex Ryan and his boys hoping to become the first team to serve up a loss on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Patriots won by the skin of their teeth over the Giants at MetLife on Sunday, narrowly avoiding their first defeat in a 27-26 win. As it is, the Patriots are 9-0 SU and 5-3-1 ATS on the season with a 14.9-point winning margin. Earlier in the season, they beat the Bills on the road 40-32. At home, the Patriots are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS with an 18.8-point winning margin. Patriots are 13-1 SU over the Bills in the last 14 meetings at Gillette Stadium.

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