Free NFL Picks: Bet Eagles to Cover -5.5 Against Reeling Dolphins

Jason Lake

Friday, November 13, 2015 1:39 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 1:39 AM UTC

Judging by our consensus reports, not a lot of people want either the Miami Dolphins or the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 10 NFL picks. It's hard to blame them.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 11: 30-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total

The Philadelphia Eagles are this close to being a really, really good football team. They've got one of the best defenses in the NFL. They've got one of the sport's greatest offensive minds in head coach Chip Kelly. They've got DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles at running back. What's not to love?

Only the two guys who score the most points. The Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS) are getting substandard performances from QB Sam Bradford and PK Caleb Sturgis, knocking them down from 29.6 points per game last year to 24.1 points this year. Philadelphia sure could use those 5.5 points this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) when they host the Miami Dolphins; at press time, the Eagles are pegged at –5.5 on our NFL odds board, or –6 (–105), or even –7 (+120) if you like to live on the edge.


Eastern Suckage Time
Not too many thrill-seekers out there in the marketplace. The Dolphins (3-5 SU and ATS) aren't inspiring a lot of confidence these days, either; they had that one big win over the Houston Texans (+4.5 away) after firing head coach Joe Philbin, and then the Fish went back in the tank, getting blown out on the road by both the New England Patriots (–8) and the Buffalo Bills (–4). Now they're taking their act to Philly.

At least it'll be sunny this time. The weather forecast at kick-off calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 50s – what is this, South Beach? That's still not enough to inspire people to fade the Eagles and put Miami in their NFL picks; our consensus reports show very light action for this matchup, with 57 percent of bettors leaning toward the Dolphins, but with only 44 percent of the monies wagered. No big $1000+ bets for either team.


Black Hole Suh
As disappointed as Eagles fans may be with Bradford, Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't been doing very well, either. Both quarterbacks are below league average on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, with Tannehill (No. 23 of 31) ahead of Bradford (No. 28). And Miami can't be terribly thrilled with rookie PK Andrew Franks, who is 6-for-8 on field goals and 19-for-21 on extra points after beating Sturgis for the job in training camp.

That's about where the similarities end. Miami's defense has been awful this year, despite adding DT Ndamukong Suh during the offseason. This is a far bigger problem than Tannehill's play; it's not Suh's fault, except that he's earning all the money Miami could have used to replace injured DE Cameron Wake (Achilles). We hate to say we told you so. This could be a very big game for both Murray and Mathews, but since Sam Bradford isn't doing so well, let's keep that bet size nice and low. Better profit margins will come around.

NFL Picks: Take the Eagles –5.5 (–105) at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837126, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here