Free NFL Picks Against The Spread - Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins Players

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, September 20, 2016 9:29 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 20, 2016 9:29 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapper backed Miami at +7.5 to got the hook in his favor last week in New England. See where his loyalty lies as the Dolphins finally open their 2016 season at home.

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins
Two 0-2 teams match up in Week 3 in Miami, yet the odds tell us that one of these teams is not like the other. The Miami Dolphins started the season with what has to have been the hardest 2-week stretch in recent memory, on the road against the Seahawks in Week 1 followed up by a date in Foxboro in Week 2. The Dolphins lost both games by a close margin and covered the spread against the Patriots and Seahawks with the lines that I wagered on.

Cleveland, on the other hand, lost their starting QB in Week 1 on the road against Philadelphia and followed that up with a 20-25 loss with Josh McCown at the helm to Baltimore at home in Week 2. The Browns are 0-2 against the spread coming into Week 3 here, and with sportsbooks posting chalk of 9.5 to 10 points for Miami, the consensus is that this team is due for a very long season. The O/U total has opened at 41.5 at 5Dimes.

The story for the first two games for Cleveland has definitely been their ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball. You could say that is easy to point out as they have averaged 15 points per game, but the statistic that really sticks out is the time of possession. With the Browns only averaging 20:40 in time of possession per game, their defense has been on the field forever. Even if the rushing defense is good for the Browns, eventually with enough chances the opposing team will score. The Browns defense has given up an average of 27 points per game so far, but they’ve really been on the field for nearly two and a half games.

The Miami front seven on defense is immensely talented and are a perfect 2-0 in knocking QB’s out of games so far this year. Cleveland is nearly out of QB’s, so that doesn’t bode well for the Browns in this game. I think the only reason this line isn’t higher is that running back Arian Foster will be out, and center Mike Pouncey is questionable. Those are some very important cogs, but the biggest mismatch is the Miami defense versus the Cleveland offense, and that advantage still holds.

This game will not be close. In fact, I may have to take advantage of Bovada’s great 100% Kickoff Match bonus to boost my bankroll to put more than one unit on this game. With Miami finally coming home after a tough stretch, they will cover the -10 at Bovada with ease. 24-6 Miami.

2016 NFL Record: 5-4, +0.65 Units

 

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins -10
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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