Follow us this week as we go through the entire week's NFL betting slate predicting all the games against the spread. We've got you covered with our NFL picks.
Week 14 NFL Betting Recap
Last week we jumped to a great start with our ATS picks, going 8-2 through the first ten games including Thursday's clash. Sunday afternoon and Monday Night Football, however, put a damper on things with only the Patriots pulling off the cover on the road to improve our final record to 9-7. Overall, we improve to 84-73-1 through 11 weeks of predicting our ATS picks.
Let's continue improving our winning form this week. Here goes.
Cardinals +3.5 vs. Rams -3.5
The Thursday Night Primetime clash between the Cardinals and Rams is, all of a sudden, an interesting game. Had this game occurred four weeks ago, it probably would have garnered very little interest. However, since beating the Broncos and reeling off back-to-back shutout wins over the Raiders and Redskins, the Rams are finally gaining some respect. Is it too much respect though to be favoured at the expense of their divisional leaders? Maybe. It is unusual to have a 6-7 SU team as the 3.5-to-4.5-point favourite (depending on your choice cyber shop) against a 10-3 SU team even if they are at home. Then again, one can't ignore the Rams' defense right now. Steamrolling opponents to a combined 76-0 score is no mean feat. Cardinals' defense is no slouch but it remains to be seen how well they'll handle the revived Rams. To be honest, one fears for Drew Stanton right now. Take the Rams to play the role of spoilers.
NFL Picks: Rams -3.5
Bengals vs. Browns PK
The NFL betting lines opened with the Bengals favoured on the road anywhere between 1-to-2-points depending on your choice online cyber shop. Since word got out it's Johnny "Football" Manziel time, the lines shrunk to a Pick 'em. Obviously, these are exciting times for the Browns as they debut their No.1 draft pick. And NFL bettors are buying into the hype with almost 50% backing the Browns. For our money, we're going for the experience. Andy Dalton and the Bengals should fancy their chances against a rookie. He may have some good drives and put up some points for the Browns but he's shown a lack of maturity in the few games he's had a turn on the field. He's just too much of an unknown to trust at this crucial juncture when the Bengals are fighting to defend their divisional title.
NFL Picks: Bengals PK
Packers -4.5 vs. Bills +4.5
Green Bay Packers are soaring in the NFC standings with a 10-3 SU record. They descend on the Buffalo Bills in week 15 NFL betting, a right tough nut to crack. This isn't going to be an easy game for the Packers to win let alone cover, especially if some of their defensive woes that surfaced last week come to the forefront in this game. Still, Aaron Rodgers has proven a trustworthy bet this season, leading the Packers to five straight wins, three of which included cashing against the spread as well. What's more, if he gets going, it's hard to see Kyle Orton keeping up with him.
NFL Picks: Packers -4.5
Texans +6.5 vs. Colts -6.5
Colts have a solid 9-4 SU and ATS record this season which includes a 7.7-point margin of victory. Last week, they needed a last gasp drive to beat the Browns but they failed to cover on the road. At home it's a different story for the Colts: they are 5-2 SU and ATS with a 10.7-point margin of victory. Clearly, when the Colts are winning at home they are cashing both SU and ATS. So if you're backing the Colts to win this game, the cover appears to be a logical extension to consider on your NFL picks. For our money, we feel this may be too many points to be giving the Colts given the quality of their opponent. Most of their wins and covers at home have come against lesser opponents, with the exception of the Bengals and Ravens. What's more, they were played close by the Texans in Houston in a 33-28 win. Texans have perked up of late. They've covered handily in their last two games behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. They'll be gearing up for this game and a spot of revenge for their heartbreaking loss earlier this season. Look for the Texans to keep this game closer than the odds makers are predicting.
NFL Picks: Texans +6.5
Jaguars +14.0 vs. Ravens -14.0
This game is trading on the largest NFL betting spread on the board. Large spreads can be tricky and many NFL bettors are gravitating towards the Jaguars to keep this game closer than the odds makers are predicting. For our money, we're fading the public and shading the Ravens. Jaguars are simply not a good team especially on the road where they are 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS, highlighted by a 16.5-point margin of defeat. Most of their road losses have been double-digit losses, save for the Titans who beat them 16-14. Jaguars have been unable to put up more than 20-points, save for once on the road. What's more, they've conceded a whopping 180 points on their travels, which is an average of 30-points conceded on the road. Their defense is just abominable, folding like a deck of cards against most opponents. Ravens should ride roughshod over the Jaguars en route to a big win.
NFL Picks: Ravens -14.0
Dolphins +7.5 vs. Patriots -7.5
Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins were found wanting last week by the Ravens in a 28-13 loss. Offense sparked out and defense was taxed to its limit. One can trace the beginnings of those issues to the Jets game two weeks ago when the Dolphins struggled to win, only doing so narrowly 16-13. It's a concerning sign for Dolphins fans and it doesn't augur well ahead of a date with the Patriots at the Foxboro. Patriots are 8-5 ATS this season with 10.3-point margin of victory, extending their solid form against the spread with a road win in San Diego as the 3-point road chalk. At home they are unbeaten and 4-2 ATS with an 18.3-point margin of victory. With the Patriots rolling again and the Dolphins slowing down, we're backing the hosts on our NFL picks to runaway with a big win. Keep in mind they have a score to settle with the Dolphins, who beat them in the first week of the season.
NFL Picks: Patriots -7.5
Raiders +10.0 vs. Chiefs -10.0
Raiders may be 2-11 SU this season but they are 7-6 ATS on the spread, to the satisfaction of bookmakers who have been lining their pockets at their expense. Three weeks ago, the Raiders clinched their first win on the season along with a cover. NFL bettors were seduced, the immediate reaction was to jump on the Raiders to cover the following week against the Rams; it goes without saying, nobody saw the 52-0 blowout coming. Disenchantment ensued, which prompted most NFL bettors to go against the Raiders in their week 15 date with the Niners. Once again, few saw the win and cover coming. This week, NFL betting trends reveal 59% of the public is backing the Raiders to cover against the Chiefs. There's a definite reactionary pattern here that NFL bettors need to be wary of when making their NFL picks. If there is one thing to learn it's that the Raiders are wholly inconsistent and off colour. Ten points does seem a lot of points to be giving the Chiefs, especially since their recent form reveals a perceptible dip. But this is a revenge game and they need to bounce back in a big way.
NFL Picks: Chiefs -10.0
Steelers -2.0 vs. Falcons +2.0
Big Ben and the Steelers threw down the gauntlet with a 42-21 win over the Bengals in week 15 NFL betting, cashing as the 3-point road underdogs on the NFL betting floor. This week they take on Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Undoubtedly, the Falcons can light up at any given moment, but their defense is going to be hard pressed against the Steelers. Pittsburgh are the correct favourites on the road in our opinion and they should cover with another statement win this week in Atlanta.
NFL Picks: Steelers -2.0
Bucs +3.0 vs. Panthers -3.0
Earlier in the week, the NFL betting line opened at 5.5-points in favour of the hosts. Now with news of Cam Newton's car accident, there's an air of uncertainty about this game which has dropped the line down to 3-to-3.5 points or thereabouts at most sportsbook platforms. Derek Anderson is named the starter instead of Newton for Sunday's date with the Bucs. As a result of this latest turn of events, 61% of the public has jumped on the Bucs against the spread. We're fading the public here and going for the Panthers as the 3-point home favourites. Tragic events have a way of rallying players.
NFL Picks: Panthers -3.0
Redskins +6.0 vs. Giants -6.0
This game is hardly of any consequence in the broad spectrum of the season. Giants had to come to terms with the fact that they are done and done when they lost in Jacksonville. Redskins came to term with that same fate ages ago. As far as the betting goes on this game, Giants as the 6-point favourites may seem too high initially. But seeing that they Giants finally remembered how to win games with a 36-7 win over the Titans, they stand in good stead for this game. Redskins were blanked by the Rams last week. Oh and their quarterback saga continues.
NFL Picks: Giants -6.0
Broncos -4.0 vs. Chargers +4.0
This is a huge game for both teams, with crucial playoff implications. Broncos lead the AFC West division with a two-game edge over the Chargers. Broncos are 10-3 SU, riding a three-game winning streak. They are 6-7 ATS this season with a 7.1-point margin of victory, underscored by a 1-3 ATS mark in their last four games. That being said, the three losses against the spread involved spreads of 7-plus points. This is a much lower spread of 4-points (opened at 3.5-points). Given the sense of urgency, it's appropriate to expect a close game. When it comes to putting down money, we're not comfortable going against Peyton Manning in favour of Philip Rivers. So we're jumping on this spread while it remains low and backing the Broncos to cover.
NFL Picks: Broncos -4.0
Jets -2.0 vs. Titans +2.0
This is a game that holds no significance towards the postseason, therefore very little appeal to many NFL bettors. It's still an opportunity for profit particularly for maligned Jets' backers that have been frustrated by their team's ineptitude this season. Finally, a game that the Jets really should cover. Both are 2-11 SU on the season and 3-9-1 ATS with hefty margins of defeat. The difference between these two sides is the run game. Jets can run the ball past the worst rush defense in the league towards a hefty win. Titans latest quarterback dilemma adds further weight to this advantage.
NFL Picks: Jets -2.0
Vikings +8.0 vs. Lions -8.0
The NFL betting line opened around the seven-point mark at early doors but it's progressively swelling as the week trundles along. The Lions are now installed as the hefty 8-point favourites at home at the expense of a decent Vikings team that is using this season as a springboard for the next few years. Lions beat the Bucs last week at home, covering a significant 9.5-point spread handily in the 34-17 win. Lions have slipped to second place behind Green Bay in the NFC North standings. Playoff hopes ride on the outcome of this game and they should deliver on expectations. So long as the NFL betting lines are no higher than 9-points the Lions are the value NFL pick. Nine is the magic number because, at home, they are 5-2 ATS with a 9.9-point margin of victory on average.
NFL Picks: Lions -8.0
Niners +10.0 vs. Seahawks -10.0
Seahawks are surging right now while the Niners look to be on the decline. The fact that the Niners' offense is average a measly 12-points per game over their last four games doesn't bode well against a stifling Seahawks defense. Two weeks ago, these bitter rivals collided at Levi Stadium and the Seahawks took the 19-3 win. Seahawks backed up that result with another suffocating win over the Eagles last week, winning 24-14. Given the current contrasting form of both teams, the 10-point spread looks appropriate. However, given the stakes and the sense of urgency both teams are feeling with postseason aspirations hanging in the balance, it does seem rather large. It's time to put up or shut up for the Niners. We're banking on the former on our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Niners +10.0
Cowboys +3.0 vs. Eagles -3.0
The Eagles are coming off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks that marred their perfect home record with a first home defeat. To put it into perspective: they lost to the defending champions. No shame there. This week, they host the best road team in the NFL: Dallas Cowboys, who are 6-0 SU on their travels after securing a 41-28 road win in Chicago last Thursday. The Eagles handed the Cowboys a tough home loss two weeks ago. Tony Romo and Company were thoroughly outplayed in the 33-10 defeat. They'll be looking to avenge that loss at the expense of the Eagles and given their road form this season, they do appear the solid NFL pick. For our money, however, we're backing the Eagles at home to bounce back.
NFL Picks: Eagles -3.0
Saints -3.0 vs. Bears +3.0
This game is a complete tossup. On one hand, the Saints continue to flop but NFL odds keep giving them the benefit of the doubt. On the other hand, the Bears continue to underachieve and the bookies take stock of it. Saints were routed by the Panthers 41-10 in one of their worst home defeats this season on Sunday. Bears were thrashed 41-28 by the Cowboys last Thursday. This is a case of two teams doing their best to lose games this season. The team that is going to be less successful stinking up the field is going to be the unfortunate winner here. We're going with the Saints to win and cover in this game only because when it comes to stinking up the field and making poor plays, Jay Cutler has no competition there. He's the best at it.
NFL Picks: Saints -3.0