Free NFL Picks for AFC East Showdown: Bills vs. Jets Week 8

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 12:32 PM GMT

The Bills eked out a victory over the Vikings last week while the shame spiral in New York continued as the Jets bowed to the Patriots. After perusing the NFL odds which team is the best bet to cash as one of your NFL picks this week?

Buffalo Bills (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Buffalo may have exhaled a last desperate gasp of air propelling Dan Carpenter's extra point through the uprights and into the win column but those who backed the Bills in their NFL picks were no doubt cursing the fact that this one was too close. Because those of you who did back the boys from Buffalo understand that when the NFL odds saddle your home chalk with a 6 ½ point impost then winning by one means nothing but a money burner. And so it was, a 17-16 victory by virtue of a two-yard flair pass from Kyle Orton to rookie sensation Sammy Watkins in the waning moments and a 4-3 straight up record heading into Week 8.

Though the Bills came away with the victory and a huge outing from Sammy Watkins (9 receptions, 122 yards and 2 TD's) they did lose their talented tandem of running backs Fred Jackson (groin) and C.J. Spiller (collar bone) for a protracted length of time. Therefore the workload will fall heavily on the shoulders of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon. The Bills enter this contest with the 19th ranked rushing attack that probably has more to do with a weak run blocking offensive line than anything else. Therefore, unless Brown or Dixon have rockets in their cleats or talents yet to be discovered, expect their ground-and pound to be pounded and ground by a very good Jets run defense.

 

New York Jets (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)
The Jets will have 10 days to prepare for this one after wasting a gritty performance in Foxboro Stadium after their last second field goal was blocked, changing their Week 7 result from a stunning Border War victory over the Patriots to a bitter defeat to their aforementioned hated rivals. But this wasn't a complete loss for those who were rooting for the Jets. Many were putting their money where their mouth's were and grabbed the 9 ½ points the oddsmakers were dealing in their NFL odds on that AFC East showdown.

New York outgained New England by 100 total yards , achieved 12 more first downs and held the ball for 40:54 of the 60 total minutes in this contest yet still found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory courtesy of a blocked Nick Folk 58-yard field goal. Perhaps the only silver lining in this one is the fact that Geno Smith showed up and had a very solid evening of football. He was unafraid to test Revis Island and as a result Eric Decker led the Jets receivers with 65 receiving yards. Maybe this is the confidence booster he needed.

 

Free NFL Pick
The New York Jets will greet their new receiving threat Percy Harvin for the first time since they handed Seattle what could be anywhere from a fourth-round to a sixth-round pick for a player who can be a game changer when he's integrated into the offense. Great deal for New York and this comes on the heels of a terrific rushing performance by the platoon of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson who chewed up the Patriots run defense for 168 combined yards.

After reviewing the Week 8 NFL odds and noting that the Jets have won 9 of the last 12 meetings (home team has won the last 5) and true home teams are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 Bills games I am soundly in the corner of a Jets team that could have easily upset one of the premier powers in the AFC last week. The Bills were lucky to beat a weak team at home while the Jets were unlucky to lose to a very good team on the road.

NFL Pick: Jets -3 at WilliamHill.com.

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