The last big chance for teaser bets with so many offerings as we get ready to close the book on regular season in the NFL. We are a little short-handed on betting odds this week for various reasons.
Before we get into final NFL picks, a recap of last week. It was primarily sportsbooks versus sharps. In the last couple weeks of season, sharps are trolling from bad matchups and oddsmakers realize this, but have to set numbers based on all bettors. Wise guys pounced on teams like Cleveland, Atlanta and St. Louis. The sportsbooks did well on Washington upsetting Philadelphia, sealing Chip Kelly's fate and got more than enough public money on teams like Carolina, New England and to a lesser degree Green Bay.
Let's move ahead to NFL teasers, as football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. While I present a four-team teaser weekly, break these out into two or three-team teasers, which increases your chances of winning, as I have actually been correct overall on 45 of 62 choices (2 Pushes).
Cincinnati -1 Teaser Odds
The Bengals had their chances to win at Denver but now look destined to home playoff game next week. If Andy Dalton is going to play, you would think they need to find out if he has a chance to and get him into some game action with his thumb. If not, rather risky for a team that last won a playoff game five months before some no-name Seattle band was to record - "Smells like Teen Spirit". (1991) My guess is Baltimore gave their all in final home game in Pittsburgh upset and we have Bengals team falling below key numbers like seven and three for this teaser action and basically just have to win the game.
Houston Pick Teaser Odds
Whether Houston has Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden at quarterback, the mission is the same, win the game and they are AFC South champions. With the teaser odds down to this level, we do not require the Texans best effort, rather one that is sufficient. Another positive factor on our side is nobody gives up more points on the road than Jacksonville, torched for 33 points a game in the traveling whites. Houston does not have to do anything special to win, just play their game and let the Jaguars do what they do best. In this case being 2-11 ATS against teams above .500 off back to back wins in last four games of the season.
Kansas City -1 Teaser Odds
Normally,'Raiders Week' is big deal for Kansas City, but with impending playoff contest next week, the usual fervor Chiefs players display will most likely not be present. This does not mean K.C. will not try, because it is better to be the fifth seed and avoid New England as long as possible, than the sixth seed. This is why betting them on the teaser number is far more conducive than the spread, plus, we get far more value at this price. Here is a number that is hard not smile about with Kansas City. The Chiefs are 14-0 on the teaser line off one or more consecutive Under's since last season.
Denver -2 Teaser Odds
One last AFC squad headed to the postseason is Denver and once again we like the value of the teaser here, tumbling below two important numbers. The Broncos still have plenty to play for with an outside chance to finish as top seed, but definitely do not want to lose, where they call fall potentially all the way to a sixth seed, if everything breaks against them. I'm of the opinion if Denver can dart to 10-0 first quarter lead, San Diego players start thinking about possible head coaching change and where they will be playing next season and pack it in. Know this, Gary Kubiak-coached home teams are 20-1 on the teaser line having lost two out of their last three games.