This season in doing this article on teasers, I was on the right side of 53 of 70 picks and had two pushes, which included three of four winners last week. Please read and follow my advice below.
Let's move ahead to this week for NFL picks and as I have been preaching all season, football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. With so few choices for the postseason, playing two or three-teamers is your best bet. While that might not excite a lot of you going for the big score, the idea is to win and get a solid return on your investment for your sports picks.
In reviewing the NFL odds, here are my four best selections.
Kansas City +11 Teaser Odds
If memory serves me correctly, I have used Kansas City nine times for teaser selections and am not about to desert them now. Having a team which has given up only 11.8 points a contest during this 11-game winning streak, comes in handy when taking extra points in this situation. Also, as I have preached all season, working around key numbers can work to your advantage and with the Chiefs we go over both the 7 and 10. For loyal readers, you know I talk about systems and key trends and have been riding K.C. on this one, with the Chiefs 16-0 on teaser line off one or more consecutive Under's the last two seasons. A supporting angle is Kansas City is 24-1 on the teaser line after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.
Arizona -1 Teaser Odds
With Arizona a seven-point home favorite, we have the ability on this teaser to crawl under numbers six and three and need the Cardinals to just win the game. I have read where former NFL head coach and now ESPN analyst Herm Edwards has said Green Bay has their confidence back and is treacherous with Aaron Rodgers. I will give Edwards and others the benefit of the doubt of what they are saying, but Arizona also figures to be quite focused since they were manhandled by 36-6 on their last contest and the Cards are 15-0 on teaser line at home after a loss by 28 or more points. Teasers are about improving value, which we are doing here.
Carolina +3.5 Teaser Odds
Maybe I am so far off in my thinking, but I am stunned the Carolina has been lowered to -2.5 on the standard spread line against Seattle at home. This news also brings opportunity, which I will pounce on with the Panthers at this price. With this change, we trade the home favorite for an underdog and as importantly, we also get the half point hook free of charge. Everyone had to be impressed with how Seattle closed the season, but Carolina is not only 15-1, but 11-5 ATS and yes the Seahawks have much better than expected record without Marshawn Lynch, but how effective will he be or having to use third-string running back and third-string tight end? The Panthers are 27-3 on the teaser line in home games against conference opponents.
Denver -1 Teaser Odds
Very similar to Arizona, this choice is about value and we receive it with Denver at home. The whole Ben Roethlisberger injury seems to be shrouded in mystery and certain sportsbooks have drastically altered the sides and totals on this AFC contest, which has caused confusion and opportunity.
I believe Big Ben is hurt but will play. If Roethlisberger lacks his usual accuracy and velocity 15 to 20 yards down the field, that makes their outstanding receivers less effective having to run shorter routes to catch passes. Coach Mike Tomlin is also aware, one hit on his quarterback's shoulder changes everything and with Denver leading the league in sacks with 52, the pressure is really on the offensive line. No doubt Peyton Manning is also a wild card in this clash, but I would rather have him and Denver's defense at home, instead of an injured Pitt quarterback and Landry Jones in the bullpen on the road just needing to win the game.