Free NFL Picks: 3 ATS Locks for Your Week 16 Betting Ticket

Nikki Adams

Friday, December 19, 2014 12:27 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 12:27 PM UTC

As public action comes down the wire, we look at week 16's NFL odds board and current trends in search of sharp NFL betting action for latecomers to the party. Find out which teams are this week's best bets against the spread.

Falcons vs. Saints -6.0
It's not often a home favourite is the sharp NFL pick, but as things currently stand, the Falcons have 55% of the NFL betting public's bets. Fading the public and shading the Saints may be the sharp NFL pick of the week. Granted the Saints have struggled of late at the Superdome, losing four straight – which is probably why the public's lean is towards the visitors. But the Saints are after a big win over the Bears last week, a game that featured several key changes that augur well. Not to mention, the win put the Saints back into top spot. There's also the fact that the Saints can wrap up the NFC South title with a win over the Falcons at home. Additionally, two facts go against the public's NFL betting trend a) take into consideration the Saints' home form since 2013 is 9-6 ATS with an 8.5-point margin of victory and b) the Falcons are one of the worst performers against the spread on the road since 2013 with a 5-10 ATS record and an 8.6-point margin of defeat. e

Free NFL Picks: Saints -6.0

Chiefs +3.0 vs. Steelers
The Steelers have attracted a 52% stake of the public betting market on this game for good reason. They are on a roll with two straight wins on the road combining to outscore the Ravens and Falcons 69-41. Certainly, the Chiefs don't have the sort of offense to keep up with the Steelers if they get going on Sunday. Problem with the Steelers is that one never knows what they're going to get on any given Sunday. One week they are absolutely brilliant, another they are just perplexing. Case-and-point: they lost 35-32 to the Saints in their last home game in week 13, 20-13 to the Jets on the road in week 10 NFL betting and 31-10 to the Browns on the road in week 6, and, even, 27-24 to the Bucs in week 4. The only constant in this matchup is the Chiefs' defense, which can be relied upon to keep games close. They can play a much better defense than the Steelers can and that could be the difference at the end of the day.

Free NFL Picks:  Chiefs +3.0

Giants +7.0 vs. Rams
Rams are coming off a 12-6 loss against the Cardinals on Thursday, yet they enter their upcoming date with the Giants as the hefty 7-point favourites on the NFL odds board. What's more, the NFL betting public is overwhelmingly onside – 59% of public money is on the Rams to minus the points. That has to be residual betting, the upshot of their 76-0 thrashing of the Raiders and Redskins combined. Reality is the Rams don't really have much of an offense to write home about; at least not a reliable one to merit 7-points on the spread, which has us considering the Giants as the sharp NFL pick plus the points.

For the second season in a row, the Giants look to finish on a winning note. Not that it helps their season in any way meaningful, save to set up high expectations for the following season. Last season, the Giants won seven of their last ten games to finish with a 7-9 SU record. This season, since their loss to the Jaguars in week 13 NFL betting, which put an end to their season officially, the Giants have reeled off back-to-back wins. Importantly, they seem to have worked out offensive kinks, Odell Beckham Jr. has lit up and their front-four pass rush has shown a pulse. Rams can defend amongst the best of them, but their offense has no answer to the Giants' offense if it comes down to a shootout. Parting note: big wins by the Rams are few and far in between.

Free NFL Picks:  Giants +7.0

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