Free NFL Pick - Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers  

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 8:14 PM UTC

The Falcons look to snap the negative trend against the Bucs when they collide in Thursday Night Football. Will the Falcons finally deliver? Find out as we analyse this matchup and serve up SU, ATS and Total NFL picks.

   Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Point Spread Value

Falcons snap a negative trend just in time for the rematch with divisional rivals Buccaneers who upset them at the Georgia Dome in week 1. Since that opening defeat, the Falcons have won five of their ensuing seven games including a right cracker over the Green Bay Packers in week 8 NFL betting. That run of form serves up the Falcons with a 5-3-0 SU and ATS record underscored by a 3.9 winning margin and +5.1 differential versus the spread. The Bucs, meanwhile, are coming off a 30-24 loss in overtime to the Raiders, a result that sees them slip to 3-4SU and ATS mark underscored by a -5.3 losing margin on average and a -3.0 differential versus the spread.

What is interesting to note is a 0-3 ATS record as favourites by the Falcons this season and, more intriguingly, a 1-2 SU record as favourites. Going into week 8, the Falcons were sporting a dreadful 0-7 SU mark as favourites. The come-from-behind win over the Packers snapped that losing trend, albeit they failed to cover as the -3 home chalk. Most NFL bettors would agree the Falcons are the better team on paper and Matt Ryan is clutch under centre, but those stats stand in stark contrast to such popular opinion. It begs the question whether the Falcons are viable favourites. Clearly, under the weight of expectations they struggle with the pressure.

To put it simply, the Falcons should win and cover this game but the Bucs could pull off the upset, making this week 9 NFL picks far from a lock. Still, we’re shading the Falcons ever so gingerly.


Free NFL Pick: Falcons -3 (-110)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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The Survivor

As mentioned above, the Falcons should win and cover as the -3 road chalk in this matchup. Buoyed by the come from behind win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the Falcons should descend on Raymond James Stadium with a verve and swagger that was missing in week 1. The Bucs will be bummed following the overtime loss to the Raiders and ripe for the taking. There’s also the revenge factor to consider: the Bucs have been dialled into this matchup winning three of the last four meetings. It’s about time Matt Ryan and the Falcons scoop one back.

Free NFL Pick: Falcons -175Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Game Total

Matt Ryan is a gunslinger and he can put up the points in a hurry. As it is, the Falcons top the charts with a 7-1-0 OVER record. In layman terms that’s an 87.5% OVER conversion rate and, importantly, their games close with a +12.9 differential versus the total on average. To date, the Falcons have put up an incredible 262 points and conceded 231 points. While the former number is impressive the latter is a slight concern. Dan Quinn’s defense is improved but it still leaks too many points. On the flipside, the Bucs are 4-3-0 in total betting. The OVER edges the UNDER ever so slightly as far as their matchups are concerned this season.

 Free NFL Pick: OVER 51 (-107)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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