Free NFL Betting Picks For Week 7 - New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 21, 2016 10:57 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 21, 2016 10:57 PM UTC

Despite all that statistical, numerical support favoring Pittsburgh, this remains the biggest contrary play on the board, a game in which only you and I and the LONE RANGER will be suiting up for this winner NFL pick.


New England Patriots (-7-) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 4:25 ET

Each week in this spot, I author a Lone Ranger Contrary Play Of The Week. This season to date, there may be no bigger contrary play than the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7-) against the New England Patriots this Sunday. With the majority of the public money flowing to Brady’s boys, there is little doubt that only you and I and THE LONE RANGER will be on the Pittsburgh Steelers today.

On October 2nd, New England lost a home game to Buffalo (16-0). It was the final game of a 4-game, season-opening suspension for QB Brady. The Patriots were further nicked at the signal caller position with injuries to second and third teamers. If not for that contest, the Patriots are a perfect 5-0 SU ATS. That includes the last 2 weeks when New England first defeated Cleveland (33-13) followed by a convincing (35-17) win at home vs. the Bengals last week.  Though many believe the Patriots are playing well because of the “chip on the shoulder theory” due to Brady’s suspension, the statistical facts show that there are other reasons.  In the last 4 years, New England has consistently allowed 21 PPG.  This year, the Patriots are allowing only 15 PPG (the 2nd best scoring defense in the NFL behind Minnesota). That unit has given multiple opportunities to an ever-improving offense that now features a pair of tight ends and multiple, healthy skill position players. In short, the Patriots appear to be the front-runner for this year’s Super Bowl. With a record of a 9-3 SU ATS in this series, it is a short leap to lay the points on the road with the Patriots. 

Following a rainy weekend, here in the Burgh, skies should clear for what will be a beautiful Sunday afternoon.  But, the soggy turf of Heinz Field offers a major advantage to a Pittsburgh Steelers team, who will be relying on the ground game from their outstanding tandem of backs in Bell and Williams.  QB Landry Jones (a big step down from Big Ben) will be at the controls.  Ben is now out 4-6 weeks (knee), an injury that was originally supposed to sideline him for 2-3 weeks.  That injury is also the reason why this line is more than 7 points from where it would have been with Ben in the lineup.  Note, however, that the Steelers are still 11-9 SU without Ben in the lineup and that the home field of the Steelers is a major ally.  Last week, the Steelers threw in a clunker at Miami (the game in which Ben was injured) in a 30-15 loss.  But, the Steelers have won 6 consecutive games following a loss as a favorite, which is the same consecutive number of games they have covered on this field.  This year, Pittsburgh has covered their 3-home games by a combined 40 points.  Adding fuel to the home field fire, which will be Heinz Field, is the fact that home teams in New England games are now 37-16 ATS.  

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on the Pittsburgh Steelers in this late afternoon game!

 Free NFL Pick: Steelers +7 (-105)Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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