Free CFL Picks: Toronto vs. Montreal Week 11 Preview

David Schwab

Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:19 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 5, 2013 7:19 PM GMT

The Toronto Argonauts and the Montreal Alouettes will wrap-up the back-end of a home-and-home series this Sunday to kick-off the second half of the CFL regular season.

All the action from Percival Molson Stadium is set to get underway at 1 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast in Canada on TSN. Get your Week 11 sports picks ready!

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Toronto Overview

The Argonauts’ early lead in the East Division has been whittled down to just one game at 5-4 after back-to-back losses to Calgary and Montreal both straight-up and against the spread the last two weeks. They are 4-5 ATS with the total going ‘Over’ in five of the nine games. This past Tuesday’s night’s 20-9 loss to the Alouettes as six-point home favorites raised some glaring concerns for an offense that has only managed to score a combined 23 points in its last two games.

The big question for Sunday night’s showdown will be the availability of quarterback Ricky Ray, whose absence from the lineup is the primary reason for the power outage on offense. He was off to a blazing start with 1,824 passing yards and 15 touchdown throws while completing an amazing 78.3 percent of his passes. In his place, Zach Collaros has struggled to effectively move the ball down the field.

Read our CFL Betting Tips and Strategies Guide for an edge in your sports betting!

Montreal Overview

Montreal has some quarterback concerns as well with long-time veteran Anthony Calvillo still suffering effects from a concussion, but fans may be getting a glimpse of the future with Tanner Marsh playing in his place. He has only completed 55.7 percent of his throws for 671 yards and two scores, but the Alouettes are finding ways to win games with him at the helm.

They are just one game back in the East at 4-5 SU after winning three of their last five games while going a profitable 4-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in three of Montreal’s last four games and in three of five home games this year. It has also gotten a much better effort on the defensive side of the ball behind linebacker Chip Cox, who leads the CFL in tackles with 71 and defensive lineman Kyries Hebert, who has already recorded seven sacks this season.

Toronto vs. Montreal Betting Lines and Trends

Early CFL betting lines for this matchup has Montreal listed as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total line set at 54.

The Argonauts are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and 5-1 SU in their last six games on the road. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in five of their last seven road games.

The Alouettes are 2-4 SU in their last six games at home and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in eight of their last 10 games played at home.

Head-to-head in this divisional matchup, Toronto is just 5-15 SU in the last 15 meetings overall and 8-17 SU in its last 25 road games against Montreal. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in the last five meetings in Montreal.

[gameodds]19/223985/?r3=43-349-192-19/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

Toronto vs. Montreal Free CFL Pick

If Ray is ready to go then Toronto has a chance in this game, but given the current scenario for both teams’ quarterback situation for this contest, the free CFL pick is with Montreal to cover at home in a SU win. The Alouettes are the slightly better all-around team right now and the past trends in this series weigh heavily in their favor. 

CFL Pick: Bet the Alouettes point spread of -2.5 at Bet365

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