Free CFL Picks: Montreal vs. Toronto Week 10 Preview

David Schwab

Thursday, August 29, 2013 2:38 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013 2:38 PM UTC

The Montreal Alouettes and the Toronto Argonauts will square-off for the second time this season in Tuesday night’s clash at the Rogers Centre.

This East Division battle is set to get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast in Canada on TSN.

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Montreal Overview

Montreal lost the first meeting between the two this season 38-13 as a two-point home underdog as part of a very shaky 2-5 start, but last week’s thrilling 39-38 victory over British Columbia as a 10-point underdog may have turned a corner for the defending East Division champs. It is now 3-5 straight-up on the year and 4-4 against the spread. The total has gone an even 4-4 overall but it has gone ‘Over’ in two of three road games this year.

Things have gotten so bad for the Alouettes that they already fired a head coach just five weeks into the season and longtime quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who has struggled all season long, is now dealing with the effects of a concussion. Montreal’s usually potent offense is averaging just 24.4 points a game while its defense is allowing close to 30 points a game. The lone bright spot lately was backup quarterback Tanner March leading the team back from a 21-7 deficit against the Lions last week.

Toronto Overview

The Argonauts were rolling along just fine with four-straight victories after a 1-2 start, but it all came unglued last week in a 35-14 loss to Calgary as four-point favorites at home. When you add it all up, Toronto is still in first place in the East Division at 5-3 SU and it is 4-4 ATS with the total going ‘Over’ in five of the first eight games. It is 2-3 ATS at home and the total has gone ‘Over’ in four of the five games.

Part of the reason for last week’s collapse and why this game is still off the board is a shoulder injury to quarterback Ricky Way. He has been able to pick-up where he left off after leading this team to a stunning run to last season’s Grey Cup title. Ray has already thrown for 1,824 yards and 15 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception this year. His status for Tuesday remains day-to-day, but if he cannot go look for Zach Collaros to get the start. Last week against the Stampeders Collaros completed 16-of-26 attempts for 221 yards.

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Montreal vs. Toronto Betting Lines and Trends

Opening CFL betting lines for this East Division showdown have yet to be released, but look for Toronto to open as three or four-point home sports betting favorites if Ray is able to go. The total for this game should be set around 54 points.

The Alouettes are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and the total has gone ‘Over’ in eight of their last 11 games on the road.

The Argonauts are 6-2 SU in their last eight home games and the total has gone ‘Over’ in eight of their last nine games played at home.

Head-to-head in this East Division clash, Montreal has a slight 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings but the series is tied 5-5 ATS. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in the last six meetings between the two.

Montreal vs. Toronto Free CFL Pick

It will be hard to get a solid handle on this game until Ray’s playing status has been determined, but the one thing we already do know is just how tight this series has been over the past few seasons. Regardless of who lines up under center for either team, the free CFL pick in this contest is Montreal as it finds a way to capitalize on some solid momentum from last week’s game to get a much needed win on the road and climb right back into the division title race.

CFL Pick: Bet the Alouettes on the spread (shop around for the best line, once it is posted.)

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