Free CFL Picks: Calgary vs. Edmonton Week 11 Preview

David Schwab

Wednesday, September 4, 2013 9:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 4, 2013 9:06 PM UTC

The Calgary Stampeders and the Edmonton Eskimos will wrap-up the back-end of a CFL West Division home-and-home series this Friday night.

The game is slated to get underway at 9 p.m. ET at Commonwealth Stadium and will be broadcast in Canada on TSN. Given that this is the second part of a series, predicting outcomes can be tricky, so watch your sports picks in this one. 

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Calgary Overview

The Stampeders built a comfortable 30-7 lead in this past Monday’s series opener heading into the fourth quarter and then had to withstand a furious comeback attempt to hold on for a 37-34 victory as 7.5-point home favorites. The win over the Eskimos pushed Calgary’s overall record to 7-2 straight-up, but it fell to 6-3 against the spread. The total went way ‘Over’ the 57-point line in this game and it has now gone ‘Over’ in six of its first nine games.

Scoring was obviously not the issue for the Stampeders in the win over Edmonton and it has not been one all season long with an average of 33.1 points a game. Quarterback Kevin Glenn has done a very efficient job passing the ball this season with a completion percentage of 68.6. The real strength of this offense is a running game led by Jon Cornish, who has already gained 809 yards on 125 carries that includes eight trips to the end zone. There has to be some concern on the defensive side of the ball, especially after giving-up 27 points in the final quarter of Monday’s game. Overall, Calgary has allowed an average of 26 points a game.

Edmonton Overview

Edmonton has to feel a bit snake bit this season with a 4-5 record ATS but just one SU victory against eight losses to show for the effort. Monday’s loss was their seventh straight setback, but the Eskimos have now lost their last five games by a combined 15 points. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games and the total has gone ‘Over’ in their last six games.

This is another team that has been able to find the end zone lately with an average of 30 points over the course of its last five games as compared to a combined total of 62 points in its first four contests this season. The problem is a defense that is now ranked last in the West Division; allowing an average of 30.2 points a game. The key to snapping this losing streak with a win on Friday night will hinge on the ability to build some kind of a lead that the defense can defend.

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Calgary vs. Edmonton Betting Lines and Trends

Calgary has been listed as a 3.5-point road favorite on opening CFL betting lines and the total has been set at 55.

The Stampeders are 6-3 SU in their last nine road games with the total going ‘Over’ in six of those games. The total has gone ‘Over’ in 13 of their last 16 games overall.

The Eskimos are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The total has gone ‘Over’ in six of their last seven games at home.

Head-to-head in this divisional matchup, Calgary has won five of the last six meetings in Edmonton SU and it is 4-1 ATS in the last five. The total has gone ‘Over’ in seven of the last nine games played in Edmonton.


Calgary vs. Edmonton Free CFL Pick

These two teams have already shown the ability to put points on the board and you would have to think that with just four days between the two games in this home-and-home series, the edge in Friday night’s contest goes to each team’s offense. Expect another hard-fought battle between these two West Division foes, but the free CFL pick for this game in on the ‘Over’ on the total line.

CFL Pick: Bet the Stampeders/Eskimos game OVER 56.5 points at Bet365

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