Free CFL Picks: Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats Week 16 Preview

David Schwab

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 8:04 PM GMT

The Toronto Argonauts will try and lock-up the East Division title this Monday afternoon in the back-end of a home-and-home series against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

This division showdown is set to get underway at 4:30 p.m. ET at Guelph Alumni Stadium and the game will be broadcast in Canada on TSN. Which team should we favor in our Week 16 sports betting?

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Toronto Overview

Toronto still has a pretty firm grip on the lead in the East, but last week’s 33-19 loss to the Tiger-Cats as a 3.5-point home favorite has definitely added a sense of urgency to lock things up with a win this week. The Argonauts are 9-5 straight-up (8-6 against the spread) on the year with an impressive 6-1 record both SU and ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘Over’ in nine of 14 games this season including in five of the seven road games.

Ricky Ray has missed the last several games with a lingering shoulder injury, but he could be available for Monday’s contest. The offense has remained in capable hands with Zack Collaros taking the snaps under center. In relief of Ray, he has thrown for 2,251 yards and 13 touchdowns while completing 66.3 percent of his attempts. The Argonauts’ defense has not always made things easy for this team this season. It is allowing an average of 26.4 points a game with the total exceeding that number in six of Toronto’s last eight games.

Hamilton Overview

Last week’s win in the first of this home-and-home series not only kept Hamilton’s division title hopes alive, it also clinched a spot in the playoffs. The Tiger-Cats are now an even 7-7 on the year both SU and ATS; however they do come into this matchup with a 2-5 record ATS at home after winning four of seven home games SU. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in five of these seven games.

In order to pull off the sweep and keep the East title race alive, Hamilton will need another big effort from quarterback Henry Burris. Last week against Toronto, he completed 19-of-31 attempts for 274 yards and two touchdowns. Burris is currently ranked first in the CFL in passing yards with 4,173 and he is second in touchdown throws with 21. The only glaring black mark on his record this season is a league-high 16 interceptions. The Tiger-Cats will also need another solid day from their defense. That has not always been the case this season after giving-up an average of 27.4 points in its first 14 games.

Toronto vs. Hamilton Betting Lines and Trends

The opening CFL betting line for this game is still listed as OFF because of the undetermined playing status of Ricky Ray. Hamilton should still open as a slight home favorite even if Ray is ready to go come Monday and the total should be set somewhere in the low 50’s.

The Argonauts are 5-0 both SU and ATS in their last five road games and the total has gone ‘Over’ in five of their last six games on the road.

The Tiger-Cats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The total has stayed ‘Under’ in six of their last eight games at home.

Head-to-head in the East Division rivalry, Toronto has lost four of its last six road games against the Tiger-Cats SU, but it is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Hamilton. The total has gone ‘Over’ in seven of the last 10 games in this series played there.

Toronto vs. Hamilton Free CFL Pick

Toronto has been a beast on the road this season and it will have the added benefit of a revenge factor working in its favor after last week’s loss. It is extremely hard to beat a closely matched division opponent two weeks in a row and it is not happening this Monday. The free CFL pick for this one is Toronto in a SU win on the road.

CFL Pick: Pick the Argonauts to win straight up on the money line, against the TiCats

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