Free ATS Picks for Week 3 NFL Betting

Nikki Adams

Sunday, September 21, 2014 4:49 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 21, 2014 4:49 PM UTC

As we head into week 3 NFL betting, five teams are yet to come through against the spread. Let’s look at those duds and determine whether they’ll finally come through on your NFL picks this week or continue to flop against the spread.

Through two weeks of NFL betting this season, we’ve already had some shocking upsets, brilliant comeback-from-behind wins, virtual beat downs and, crucially, teams that have flopped against the spread, including favourites such as Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers joining the ranks of New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars as 0-2 ATS teams on the season.

Here’s our breakdown of these duds and their matchups in week 3, complete with NFL picks against the spread.


Texans +1 (-115) vs. Giants
Giants are 0-2 ATS going into their home date with the Texans, who are soaring high after back-to-back wins and a perfect 2-0 ATS record. Giants’ problems span the entire bench as well as coaching. Offensively, they’ve mustered up a scant 14 points per game and Eli Manning has been dropping the ball like a hot potato – four interceptions and a paltry 61.1 completion percentage. The real question here is though are the Texans good, really? Or are they only as good as their opponents were bad? Let’s face it wins over the Redskins and Jaguars aren’t exactly statement-making wins. Then again you can’t deny their defense its richly deserved plaudits. If that defense continues on its rich vein of form, they’ll have a field day with Eli Manning. The line on this game has been oscillating faster than the New York Exchange with the Texans once favoured as high as 2.5-points on the NFL odds but now dropping to 1-point pups. Clearly, the betting public isn’t giving up on the Giants entirely, as well bookies are trying to balance the action. For our money, however, it’s hard to see how Eli Manning will handle the formidable J.J. Watt and his crew on the Texans formidable defense.

NFL Picks: Texans +1

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Vikings vs. Saints -10 (-110)
The Saints are 0-2 ATS following two losses on the road in games that appeared relatively winnable to many NFL bettors. Then again, consider the Saints have always been a different beast on the road – they are at the bottom of the pile with a 14-24-0 record ATS since 2010 on the road. So perhaps the first two weeks were just par for the course.

This week, the Saints are at home. Finally, a game they should at least win – remember they were unbeatable last season at home (8-0). But is it also a game where they can lay the points as a double-digit favourite? Saints are installed as the 10-point favourites over a Minnesota Vikings side that’s been distracted by the brouhaha over Adrian Peterson’s issues of the field. At first, this does seem rather steep – a whole lot of points for the Saints to lay particularly after the first two games left NFL bettors confused about how to read them. Consider however the Vikings were drummed by the Patriots 30-7 last week at home, and travel to New Orleans Peterson-less. On the flipside of the coin, the Saints have form at home where they are top of the pile with 24-9-0 ATS since 2010, marginally better than the Seattle Seahawks (25-11-0 ATS at home).

NFL Picks: Saints -10

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Broncos +4.5 (-110) vs. Seahawks
The Broncos have revenge on their minds after the thumping they received in last season’s title game. What’s more, Denver’s division rivals San Diego Chargers just beat the Seahawks, albeit at home. Broncos have a much better defense than they did last year, which takes some of the pressure off Manning. Expect a much closer game than we saw last year between these two illustrious sides. One hardly ever gets to bank on the Broncos as the underdogs against the spread. It’s almost unheard of in the current game with Peyton Manning at centre. Just for the novelty of it all, it warrants a tickle don’t you think. Broncos are 10-6-0 ATS on the road since 2012 and 14-14-1 ATS after coming off a win (in previous game).

NFL Picks: Denver +4.5

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Steelers vs. Panthers -3.0 (-120)
Carolina Panthers are 2-0 ATS going into this game, a run of form that looks set to continue as they take on a struggling Pittsburgh Steelers that have fallen way short off the mark in NFL expectations. The Steelers looked awful in both games, despite splitting 1-1SU. Panthers’ defense remains stalwart and Cam Newton is still a world-class quarterback who can capitalise on the Steelers’ porous defense. What’s to figure out here?

NFL Picks: Panthers -3.0 at 5Dimes

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