Free Agency Winners/Losers & Updated Super Bowl Futures Odds

David Schwab

Tuesday, March 27, 2018 7:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2018 7:27 PM UTC

The NFL’s free-agent market opened for business March 14, and within the first few days of wheeling and dealing most of the top players on this year’s list either reached a deal with their existing team or a new one. Which clubs are early winners or losers? 

Super Bowl Futures Biggest Winners

The Philadelphia Eagles stunned the betting world last season by winning three postseason games as underdogs with backup quarterback Nick Foles to lay claim to the first Super Bowl title in franchise history. Executive Vice President Howie Roseman along with second-year head coach Doug Pederson made all the right moves in 2017 to quickly turn a 7-9 team into a world champion in one season. The Eagles’ opened at +1200 betting odds on 5Dimes to win a second Super Bowl title right after that victory, and their updated odds to win after the first three weeks of free agency have dropped to +850 as second-favorites to New England (+500). Philadelphia had very little cap space to make a big splash in the free agent market, but one of the big deals it did make addressed the defensive line with the addition of former Seahawks Michael Bennett to the fold.

Another NFL team on the rise in bettors' eyes when it comes to Super Bowl futures odds is the San Francisco 49ers. They opened at +2000 and their current odds stand at +1400. The main reason for the move up was the 49ers’ ability to come to terms on an extended contract for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. However, the additions of cornerback Richard Sherman and running back Jerick McKinnon have also resonated with bettors. San Francisco won two games in 2016. With Garoppolo at the helm, it won its final five games last season to finish 6-10. Adding the right pieces to fill the biggest holes has obviously had a big impact on the 49ers' Super Bowl futures.

One big free agency signing that could have an impact on the Los Angeles Rams’ Super Bowl futures is the addition of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Bettors have already taken the Rams’ opening odds of +2000 to +1700 before this deal was announced. This is another team that took a dramatic step in the right direction last season by winning the NFC West.

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Rams’ HC Sean McVay said today that no trade is off the table.@PLeonardNYDN reported yesterday that Rams interested in Odell Beckham Jr.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 27, 2018

Super Bowl Futures Biggest Losers

The team with the biggest change in value the opposite way has been the Dallas Cowboys. Soon after their NFC East rivals won Super Bowl LII, the Cowboys’ odds to win a world title next season opened at +1600. Looking at the updated Super Bowl futures board at 5Dimes, their odds have ballooned to +2500. Given the lack of any blockbuster gains or losses in free agency, it is tough to figure out why Dallas has fallen out of favor with the betting public as one of the highest-profile teams in the league.

The current unrest with some of the Cowboys' existing free agent issues and most notably the future of wide receiver Dez Bryant does not help the cause. The recent signing of wide receivers Allen Hurns and Deonte Thompson could point to a parting of the ways with Bryant in light of his hefty contract.

Another NFL team sliding down the Super Bowl futures list with bettors is the Jacksonville Jaguars going from +1800 to +2200. While this is not a dramatic shift in the numbers, it is an interesting situation given just how much this team accomplished to 2017 with a run all the way to AFC title game. The Jags have lost two starting receivers in Hurns and Allen Robinson (Bears).

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