AFC Divisional Weekend Trends (Since 2001)
Betting favorites are 45-23 SU (66.2 percent) and 29-38-1 ATS (43.3 percent) in the Divisional Round over the last 17 years, laying an average -6.4 points. Sizeable money-line upsets tend to occur in the third of underdog victories, winning 11 while catching 6.5 points or more on the NFL oddsboard, as opposed to 12 when spotted less.
Upsets also tend to happen on Sunday. Home teams are 28-6 SU (82.4 percent) and 20-14 ATS (58.8 percent) playing on Saturday, gifting an average 6.6 points. On Sunday, laying 5.6 points per game, their records dip to 18-16 SU (52.9 percent) and 10-23-1 ATS (30.3 percent) overall.
Divisional-round road teams totaling double digits in the win column have covered the spread in two-thirds of the last 40-plus matchups (27-13-1 ATS) when their opponent enters the clash with more SU victories. The Colts carry 11 wins following last week’s upset at Houston, while the Chiefs sport an AFC-best 12 victories off a first-round bye.
Since 2001, divisional-round defenses most efficient at stopping the run are a commanding 45-22-1 ATS (67.2 percent). Underdogs or short-priced favorites of less than 4 points are an astonishing 24-18 SU (57.1 percent) and 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) in this situation, despite catching an average 4.7 points. The Colts rank No. 6 in the NFL, allowing 4.0 yards per carry. The Chiefs, meanwhile, yield 5.0 overall. Only the Rams (5.1) surrender more.
Divisional-round teams combining for more than 53.0 points per game during the regular season have cashed the “over’ in 15 of 21 contests (71.4 percent). A 54.3 final tally is topping a 49.5 average total by 4.8 points per game under these conditions. The Chiefs led the NFL with 35.3 points per game, while the Colts accrued 26.7 per tilt.
Indianapolis Colts (11-6 SU, 9-7-1 ATS)
Avg. Line: -1.0
Avg. ATS Margin: 5.0
Avg. Total: 47.6
O/U Record: 8-8-1
Avg. O/U Margin: -0.2
Colts In The Postseason (Since 2001)
SU Record: 13-11
ATS: Record: 12-11-1
Avg. Line: -1.2
O/U Record: 8-15-1
Avg. Total: 48.1
|Season||Team||Opponent||Site||Final||Line||Total||Colts SU||Colts ATS||O/U Result|
Colts Postseason Trends (Since 2001)
The Colts are just 4-7 SU and ATS in road playoff games since 2001. The offense sputters to 15.5 points per game. The “under’ is 8-2-1 overall. Franchise QB Andrew Luck has led Indy to a 2-3 SU and ATS record under center, averaging 16.6 points per game. The offense has put up 24 points or fewer in each of Luck’s starts.
Since 2001, the Colts post 15.3 points per game in 10 as the betting underdog.
The Colts are just 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in the postseason versus opponents with a higher-scoring offense. Indy’s defense yields 29.9 points per game in this spot, thrashed for 31 or more in over than half (4) the contests.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4 SU, 8-6-2 ATS)
Avg. Line: -5.0
Avg. ATS Margin: 4.0
Avg. Total: 54.0
O/U Record: 9-6-1
Avg. O/U Margin: 7.6
Chiefs In The Postseason (Since 2001)
SU Record: 1-7
ATS: Record: 1-6-1
Avg. Line: 0.3
O/U Record: 3-5
Avg. Total: 45.1
|Season||Team||Opponent||Site||Final||Line||Total||Chiefs SU||Chiefs ATS||O/U Result|
Chiefs Postseason Trends (Since 2001)
The Chiefs are just 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in the postseason since 2001. Behind head coach Andy Reid, the franchise is 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. K.C. has lost all four at Arrowhead Stadium in this span, failing to cover a -2.6 average line by an eye-opening 10.8 points per game.
Dating back to his time coaching the Eagles, the under is 8-2 in Reid’s last 10 postseason home games.
Reid is just 1-7 SU and 1-6- ATS in his last eight playoff games, despite kicking off the betting favorite (-1.1 average) in six.