Four Team Teaser for Your Week 1 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 3:38 PM GMT

Sportsbooks have increased their handle in football dramatically over the years by satisfying the appetite of those making sports picks with more parlay and teaser options for those seeking bigger score.

What this means is you can theoretically reduce risk of multiple bets by placing one wager and if you are correct, depending on the number of games you have chosen, the potential payout is attractive for the outlay.

Teasers have gained in popularity over the last several years as the bettor can now match the 'point spread' they prefer in choosing games, which reduces their risk with the different NFL odds, yet adding risk by having to win more than one game.

Sportsbooks figured out a long time ago that most NFL bettors are quite confident, often delusional, and when it came to teaser cards in this case, if those placing NFL picks on these cards had four or five "sure winners", they would be willing to risk one more game "having a strong feeling" and increasing their potential payouts. However, every bettor has cards with five out of six winners, which in this case is a losing ticket.

All this has done for the most part is increase the sportsbooks profits. Most NFL football handicappers and sharp bettors used to eschew such plays, calling them "sucker bets". However, with more progressive thinking, most bettors that are paying attention, figured out that if you bet into key numbers on teasers, you can build in an edge on where the numbers typically fall and reduce risk.

Myself, a four-team six-point teaser is a comfortable choice most weeks, because finding six games with what seems to be favorable odds is possible and whittling down to four strengthens my chances of winning. And while you no longer get 4-to-1 odds on a six-point teaser, Heritagesports.eu comes the closest these days at +355 on a four-teamer.

Here are my NFL picks for our Week 1 Teasers.

 

New England -1
The big Thursday night opening game is full of intrigue with New England even more being under the glare of hot lights with Tom Brady just beating the NFL in Deflategate, but this was followed by an ESPN magazine article about Spygate, reporting many supposed ugly elements about the Patriots inner workings.

Whatever the story lines, we will take New England down to -1 at home, essentially meaning we just have to win the game. In the last 14 times the Super Bowl champion opened at home (Baltimore did not in 2013 because the Orioles would not move home game playing next door), only once has the defending champs lost outright, which was the 2012 New York Giants.

Kansas City +7
The Chiefs and Texans are very evenly matched which is why the NFL spread odds have Houston at -1 against the spread. For my money, I prefer Alex Smith at quarterback in this contest with Brian Hoyer and with this teaser action, I am crossing over key numbers in +3 and +6, which can be important in a tight contest.

When reviewing six-point teasers, road underdogs at this price are 51-12 ATS, 80.9 percent.

Indianapolis +3.5
The Colts are -2.5 point favorites against the spread, but here we get the hook for free as underdogs on the most important number in football, three points. Buffalo looks like they have a great defense and will be at home. Let me ask you, would you prefer Andrew Luck or Tyrod Taylor as your quarterback? That's what I thought. Spread road favorites at this price on six-point teasers are 22-6 ATS, 78.5 percent.

New York Giants +12.5
Look for the Giants to be improved this season as Eli Manning got into a good groove late last season with his receivers and that should continue after a full off-season to generate a further understanding. With Dallas losing Orlando Scandrick out of their secondary, I believe the G-Men have too many pass-catchers for Dallas to cover and can keep pace scoring in this Sunday night affair.

With New York at +6.5 against the spread, on this teaser we go past +7 and +10, enhancing our chances of winning.

Now don't be fooled, just because everything aligns a certain way does not guarantee victory, but my money will be on these four teams for teaser bet.