This past week turned out to be very good for the sportsbooks in the NFL. Many of the most popular teams did not beat the NFL odds or teaser cards, giving them the public's cash.
Arizona opened up at -3 at Pittsburgh and went off at -5 as a very public play for NFL picks. After dominating the stats but not the scoreboard at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals collapsed in the second half and even teaser having +3 ended up being tossed in the garbage. Green Bay and Seattle were also popular choices for sports picks and neither were close to covering in the second half. It was not slam dunk day with Cincinnati, Cleveland and the New York Jets all winners, but the money flow was lower on these teams than the aforementioned.
On the topic of teasers, they have really grown in popularity for football bettors because you can structure the odds in a more favorable position. Of course there is still risk, but it is a fun an exciting way to wager.
Football handicappers like myself are not just trying to have a little fun, but be right side of key numbers to build an edge. Last week I nailed my second four-teamer of the season here, but as I have been saying and doing, break these out into two or three-team teasers and your chances of winning increase, as I have actually been correct overall on 20 of 24 choices.
Cleveland +11.5 Teaser Odds
The Browns' last three games has involved three-point outcomes, two on the road and given St. Louis is last in total offense in the NFL, no reason the Browns cannot compete. As I have talked about all season, choosing the right side is important, but so is being on the right numbers and here we catch Cleveland going past 7 and 10, to place us in more advantageous position. Here is a system of mine that also proves, at least in theory, we are in a pretty good place. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Rams off a road loss, with a 40% to 49% win percentage, playing a team with 25-40% percentage, are 6-25 ATS versus the normal point spread.
New York Jets +15 Teaser Odds
The New York Jets have gone to Foxboro and when underdogs of nine or more points the past four times and they have beat the oddsmakers number each time. We have a similar circumstance this week and this is the best New York squad since they went to playoffs in 2010 and knocked off New England 28-21 at Gillette Stadium. Once again we have the importance of a underdog going past numbers of 10, 13 and 14. My Game Estimator system forecasts teams like the Flyboys will cover the teaser odds at this price 81.8 percent of the time (27-6).
Houston +10 Teaser Odds
This is not so much a play on Houston as it is against Miami. I used the Dolphins for teaser last week and they handily covered on the receiving end of +9, with 38-10 demolition of Tennessee. Over the last 11 years, Miami is Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to home and road performances and they have been very predictable. The Fins are -4 point favorites on the standard point spread and are insufferable 13-30-1 ATS as home favorites since 2005. Now we are going to send Houston past the seven and up to +10 against a terrible home team handing out points. Also remember, the Texans are a perfect 7-0 SU against Miami.
Carolina +3 Teaser Odds
Another reason we did so well last week was believing in Carolina, which not many were willing to do and they outplayed and out-executed Seattle the last two-thirds of their game. It is foolish to ignore the facts, the Panthers are winners of nine consecutive regular season games. Philadelphia has won two straight, but has not been overly impressive in the process and could well be running into a juggernaut. Being able to have three points with the superior club adds to the value on teaser card.