Four-Team Teaser to Add Value to Your Week 4 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 5:21 PM GMT

For the second time in three weeks, the sportsbooks published NFL odds that worked against them. Not many are saying much other than using words like "ugly" and "gruesome."

The most popular wagered on teams last week were Pittsburgh, Seattle, Arizona, underdog Buffalo and Denver and they all were good for the public for NFL picks. The straight bet losses were bad enough, but when you add parlay cards and teaser cards, there were some long faces at sportsbooks.

On the topic of teasers, started talking about these at the beginning of the season and how much they have really grown in popularity for football bettors placing sports picks, because you can structure the NFL odds in a more favorable position. Of course there is still risk, but it is a fun an exciting way to wager.

Football handicappers like myself are not just trying to have a little fun, but be on the right side of key numbers to build an edge. Last week, Baltimore's inability to play defense twice with the lead cost me from winning again on this teaser by half point. I am still up overall on these choices, let's try and nail another.

Here are my teaser picks for NFL Week 4 and if you like them, remember, you do not have to play all four, you can break them down into smaller segments and Heritage has some of the best NFL odds for teasers.

 

Indianapolis -1.5
It is no deep dark secret that Indianapolis does not look close to the same team that went to the AFC title game last January. Both the offensive and defensive are being pushed around and Andrew Luck is making extremely poor decisions whether he is being hurried or not. Nonetheless, we are talking about the Colts facing Jacksonville and the spread dropping from -9 to -7.5, for teaser odds, this takes us past a couple key numbers. At this price, Indianapolis just has to basically win the game and unless you think the Jaguars have something miraculous coming this week, the SU winner of this contest is 14-0 against the regular spread. I like my chances here.

 

Houston +12.5
While the Atlanta bandwagon is adding new seats daily, I'm not on board. I am the first to agree that they are better and you cannot argue with a 3-0 SU and ATS record. However, each Falcons victory has come when they were trailing in the fourth quarter and while they have been clutch, can this really continue?

Also, I love the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection, but the defense is conceding 24 points a game, thus the offense has to come through for Atlanta to win. For this teaser, Houston passes both the 7 and 10 numbers and my systems have home teams like the Dirty Birds, who are averaging 370 or more yards a game, against opponent averaging 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive contests, going 5-23 ATS, winning by 1.6 points, making the Texans an easy choice.

 

New York Giants +11.5
Buffalo was certainly impressive at Miami last week in their 41-14 victory. But think about this, if the New York Giants play with any football sense, they would have beaten both Dallas and Atlanta and sit at 3-0 in the NFC East.

Eli Manning has the offensive players to spread out the Bills defense similar to what New England did. In addition, coach Tom Coughlin's Big Blue crew is a respectable 40-33 SU on the road since 2006 and 30-24-1 ATS as road underdog. Being able to blow by the key figures of 7 and 10 and knowing the G-Men are 12-2 ATS off a home division triumph, have to like all the extra points.

 

San Diego -1.5
The Chargers has been bullied the last two weeks on the road and looked very soft. San Diego returns home and because of offensive line injuries, I think they dial back the down the field passing game and look to shorter passes and running the ball.

I understand why Cleveland wants to start Josh McCown, but does this really help the franchise? Personally, I am glad the Browns are starting him here, because Johnny Manziel has at least shown a propensity to make big plays, which helps San Diego out here.