Four-Team Parlay for Profit in Week 4

Ginn Jr picks

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 29, 2017 1:19 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 29, 2017 1:19 PM GMT

We are headed to London and Houston and Cleveland and Kansas City to back the Saints, Texans, Bengals and Chiefs in a 4-legged parlay which will have around 10/1 odds -- and a potential MNF hedge in the end if we’re lucky.

New Orleans Saints -2½ over Miami Dolphins

Wembley Stadium, London, 9:30 am ET Sunday (FOX)

The Point Spread for future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees and the favored Saints (1-2 SU/ATS) can still be found as low as 2½-130 (5Dimes) in this London game on Sunday from Wembley Stadium (Grass) against the Dolphins (1-1 SU/ATS). With New Orleans looking good this season in SU and ATS Losses at Minnesota (29-19, NO -3) and to Super Bowl champion New England (36-20, NO +5½) in The Big Easy and an upset Win at Carolina last weekend in Week 3 (34-13, NO +5), and Miami looking like a potential huge letdown after losing outright at the Jets last week (NYJ 20-6, MIA -5½) after a decent performance in Los Angeles against the Chargers (MIA 19-17, LA -3½), backing the more Confident and Offensively-able team here laying a FG (or less) on a Neutral site seems like a nice way to start a humble 4-team NFL Parlay.

The Trends show the Saints to be 2-0 ATS the L2 vs. the Dolphins and 4-2 ATS the L6 with Miami 2-1 ATS at Wembley Stadium in three London games this past decade. With the Fish (280.5 ypg Total Offense, #32) having scored just 25 points all season and in no real flow and New Orleans (378.3 ypg Total Offense, #6) led by Brees (87-69 ATS vs. Non-Division) and averaging 24.3 ppg, the Saints are the pick. Note New Orleans Overs are 3-0 with Saints games averaging 50.33 ppg but only going Over the Total by a freakish ½, 1 and ½ point so far. Totally deceiving?

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Saints 33, Dolphins 20

 

Houston Texans +110 over Tennessee Titans

NRG Stadium, Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Rookie QB Deshaun Watson and the Texans (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) face Marcus Mariota and the upstart Titans (2-1 SU/ATS) in a big Week 4 AFC South showdown from NRG Stadium (Grass) in Houston in which the visitors have been made slight favorites due to QB experience concerns with Clemson product Watson having only started 2 games for Houston (295.3 ypg Total Offense, 17.7 ppg). But Logic says JJ Watt and the hosts find a way to get the victory to avoid the 1-3 SU start, which means this should be a more Defensive game if the Texans can control the Pace. Stopping DeMarco Murray (183 Rushing yards, 5.3 ypc, TD), Derrick Henry (171 Rushing yards, 5.2 ypc, TD), mobile Oregon product Mariota (77 Rushing yards, 4.8 ypc, TD) and the Tennessee Rushing attack will be a prime objective for the Texans D (24.7 ppg, #25), whose numbers look bad due to games against Jacksonville (29 points) and New England (26).

And knowing that Houston will want to have a lower-scoring game with young Watson at the helm means looking at the 1st Quarter Under, although that will mean having to contain oft-underappreciated Titans receivers Delanie Walker (tight end), Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker. The Trends favor the Texans (+6,362 to win Super Bowl LII, Pinnacle) here with Houston 5-1 ATS L6 overall and 6-1 ATS L7 at Home vs. the Titans (+3,750 to win Super Bowl LII, 5Dimes), winning here last year in this spot, 27-20, covering as 4-point chalks in Week 4. At some point this season, the world will realize this Watson kid could be a pretty good NFL QB.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Texans 23, Titans 20

 

Cincinnati Bengals -3 over Cleveland Browns

FirstEnergy Stadium Stadium, Cleveland, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Somebody has to win here on Sunday afternoon when the Browns host the Bengals in an AFC North affair from the Buckeye State and a game few will probably pay much attention to. The Browns (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) have won just one game since Week 15 of the 2015 Regular Season (Chargers, Week 16, 2016) and the series Trends strongly favor Andy Dalton, (16-17 ATS vs. AFC North), stud WR AJ Green and the Bengals (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), who have gone 5-0 ATS the L5 meetings and 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Cleveland, winning 23-10 as 4½-point favorites last season.

Cleveland (+75,000 to win Super Bowl LII, BookMaker) does look stronger than last year’s version of the Browns with Notre Dame Rookie DeShone Kizer (546 Passing yards, 3 TDs, 6 INTs), but with Myles Garrett (Ankle) a big question mark, backing Cincinnati and laying the 3 points (-118, Pinnacle) is the third leg of this Parlay. Fifteenth-year Head Coach Marvin Lewis (114-109-11 ATS) has beaten Cleveland 5 straight times SU and it seems an embarrassing Loss here in Week 4 could cost Lewis his job should the Bengals be sitting at 0-4 on the first day of October.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Bengals 27, Browns 20

 

Kansas City Chiefs -6½ over Washington Redskins

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The team that has looked the best to start the NFL 2017 Regular Season, the Chiefs (3-0 SU/ATS), welcome the Redskins (2-1 SU/ATS) to Arrowhead Stadium (Grass) for Monday Night Football and the end to Week 4. As if this Kansas City team didn’t have a dangerous enough weapon with the football in his hands in Tyreek Hill (16 Receptions, 253 yards, 2 TDs, 15.8 ypc), the Chiefs looks to have nabbed the steal of this season’s NFL Draft with Toledo Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (47 Rushes, 477 yards, 4 TDs, 133.7 ypg). He is so good he has already had a couple of his own Prop bets created at BetOnline (Will Kareem Hunt Break Rookie Rushing Record? Yes (1,809+ +400, No -500; Will Kareem Hunt Have 2,000 Rushing Yards? Yes +1,400, No -2,500; Will Kareem Hunt Exceed Ezekiel Elliott Rookie Rushing Yards? Yes (1,632+ yards) Yes +180, No -220, BetOnline).

Here, one of the last two unbeaten teams in the NFL, Kansas City (-110 to Be Last Undefeated Team Standing, BetOnline; Falcons -110), have a huge Site advantage and the intensity of the primetime Monday night lights (5-3 ATS as Home Favorite on MNF). Alex Smith (49-42 ATS vs. Non-Division), Travis Kelce, Hunt and this team is loaded, and even though QB Kirk Cousins (13-8 ATS on Road) and the Redskins have looked decent, everything points to backing the Chiefs here with Kansas City 6-0 ATS the L6 series meetings, winning 45-10 at Washington, DC in the last meeting in 2013, covering ATS as 3½-point Road favorites. The Chiefs are just 6-11 ATS their L17 as Home chalk, going 3-6 ATS at Arrowhead in 2016 after a 2-5 ATS mark in 2015. But most of those numbers were carved pre-Hill and pre-Hunt, two electric guys who may be worth up to as much as 14 points a game.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 32, Redskins 13

WEEK 4 FOUR-TEAM PARLAY: Saints -3; Texans +110; Bengals -3; Chiefs -6.5

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