NFL Teams to Miss the Playoffs: 4 Playoff Predictions, Picks for 2023
With the regular season right around the corner, there’s still optimism for all 32 NFL teams and their fan bases, but they won’t all clinch a postseason berth. Here are our 2023 NFL playoff predictions for the teams to miss the playoffs based on the latest NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Seven teams that made the postseason in 2021 missed the playoffs in 2022, including three division winners.
It's not hard to predict that a favorite will fall short in 2023, the trouble is identifying who that will be.
Here, four of our NFL analysts take a crack at their playoff predictions and make their picks on who will miss the playoffs this upcoming season.
Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!
NFL teams to miss the playoffs picks
(Picks and odds from July 11)
| Writer | Picks | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Metler | Jets | +125 (Caesars) |
| Neil Parker | Dolphins | -105 (Caesars) |
| Michael McClymont | Browns | -120 (Caesars) |
| Sean Tomlinson | Vikings | -120 (DraftKings) |
NFL teams to miss the playoffs predictions
New York Jets (+125 via Caesars)
The Carolina Panthers are my bet for making the playoffs, and the New York Jets are my bet for missing the playoffs. The irony of all this is that the Jets are ranked much higher in my power ratings than the Panthers, but their schedule makes a huge difference.
These bets would be very different if the Jets and Panthers swapped divisions. These bets are not intended to highlight which team is better, but rather where I can find a probability gap between where I believe a team should trade in order to make the playoffs and where the market has them listed.
It's not surprising that the market has overvalued the Jets compared to my numbers since the narrative of adding Aaron Rodgers will always be compelling. I have the Jets priced at -129 (8.8 projected wins) to miss the playoffs, yet Caesars offers a +125 for them to miss the playoffs. At several of our other top NFL betting sites, the Jets odds are much shorter, trading closer to +110.
–– Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
Editor’s note: Best odds for New York to miss the playoffs are +120 via Caesars as of Sept. 1.
Miami Dolphins (-105 via Caesars)
Listen, there is far more value to be plucked if you want to take a flier on a Super Bowl favorite to miss the playoffs, but I’m comfortable with targeting the Dolphins.
I’ve saddled them with a 54.9% chance of missing the postseason, which equates to -121 odds and returns a positive expected value of 7% compared to the -105 number through Caesars.
The AFC East goes toe-to-toe with the AFC West and NFC East this season, and I’m looking at the bookends of the Miami schedule as a pair of daunting tests.
| First Four | Final Four |
|---|---|
| Week 1: @ Los Angeles Chargers | Week 15 vs. New York Jets |
| Week 2: @ New England Patriots | Week 16 vs. Dallas Cowboys |
| Week 3: vs. Denver Broncos | Week 17: @ Baltimore Ravens |
| Week 4: @ Buffalo Bills | Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills |
Road games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles sandwiched in the middle are no cakewalks, either. Add No. 1 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history, and the Dolphins are going to have a tough time sneaking into the postseason for a second consecutive season.
–– Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
Editor’s note: Best odds for Miami to miss the playoffs are -110 via DraftKings as of Sept. 1.
Cleveland Browns (-120 via Caesars)
I'm surprised to see such optimism for the Cleveland Browns They're projected as a playoff contender and I just don't see it. Their playoff probability is just under 50%.
Sure, they'll have a full season of Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but he's now two years removed from when he led the league in passing in 2020. I believe the current version of Watson lies somewhere between his outstanding 2020 season and his poor statistical performance to end 2022.
Is a career-average Watson enough to vault the Browns from seven wins to the nine or 10 required to make the postseason? I'd bet against it.
–– Michael McClymont (SBR | Twitter/X)
Editor’s note: Best odds for Cleveland to miss the playoffs are -120 via BetMGM as of Sept. 1.
Minnesota Vikings (-120 via DraftKings)
The Vikings are a classic regression candidate after a white-knuckle ride through 2022.
Sure, the end result was a tally in the win column, but too often the Vikings weren’t playing a convincing brand of football. They went 13-4 en route to winning the NFC North, but a staggering nine of those victories came by seven points or fewer, including five field-goal triumphs. The Vikings were frequently landing on the right side of a coin toss.
The team still boasts a decent offensive core that wide receiver Justin Jefferson leads, and now promising rookie Jordan Addison is alongside him. But Dalvin Cook is gone, and more importantly, a weak defense fresh off allowing 25.1 points per game (30th) is still positioned to be a creaky door as a unit.
The secondary is especially concerning after being pummeled to the tune of 265.6 yards allowed per contest. The team’s third-round pick Mehki Blackmon is intriguing at cornerback, but he won’t be able to lift the group to respectability.
Toss in the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears improving within the division, and the regression monster could swallow up the Vikings fast.
–– Sean Tomlinson (SBR | Twitter/X)
Editor’s note: Best odds for Minnesota to miss the playoffs are -122 via FanDuel as of Sept. 1.
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
