Follow The Trend & Cash Easily With The Under When Patriots-Giants Collide

Patriots team walking

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 6:20 PM GMT

We split a pair of NFL Picks for Week 3 of the preseason to push on our record for the preseason. We are still up over five units with one more week of games left and one of my trio of picks is on the Patriots and Giants. 

Week 4 Preseason Trends
Much like in Week 1 of the preseason, the offense is sometimes tough to come by. Starters never see the field as final roster cuts loom to see who makes the 53-man roster. That can make Week 4 preseason games somewhat unpredictable when it comes to the spreads for these games.

This Thursday all the road teams are underdogs anywhere from +1 to +4, but that’s about it. This is a clear sign that the sportsbooks tend to not know anything about the outcome of these games. The problem with that is in most cases neither does the person making the bet.

However, totals have been a bit more reliable in the early and late weeks of the preseason. We already cashed in big time on the under being a great play early in Week 1 and in preseason Week 4, the under is back to being a valuable play.

In the last two seasons, the under has cashed at 19-12-1 in Week 4 of the preseason. If we can rely on this for this particular game, we could have a nice play on the under in a game that has the second highest total in Week 4 of the preseason.

 

The Sharp Pick
Sports network keep talking about who should start at quarterback for the Patriots in Week 4. This is probably the biggest mystery of this game. The Patriots could decide to start Tom Brady and give him a few more reps before his suspension starts, where he cannot practice with his teammates.

Jimmy Garoppolo could get a few extra reps before he takes over the offense for the first four games of the season, but then if he gets hurt, the Patriots’ prospects in the first four games get even worse.

I think they are going to play if safe and just play Jacoby Brissett the entire game. He looked good in his game against the Panthers and if he is needed, he will need every preseason rep he can get. Playing the entire game against the Giants would give New England a chance to get a long look at the rookie third-round pick. If anything, the Pats might let Garroppolo play a little bit before handing the reigns to Brissett.

For the Giants, Ryan Nassib will likely see some extended time, but a battle between Brissett and Nassib might not be a great offensive game from either team. Lucky for us we have a nice trend of games to go by to support the under yet again in this Week 4 battle between the Pats and Giants.

These two teams always play one another in the final week of the preseason. Not only has the under cashed easily in the last two years of preseason games between these teams, the under is 6-2 in the last eight years. The average final total for these two teams in that eight-year stretch is only 34 points. If it wasn’t for high scoring games in 2013 and 2009, it would be even less. With young quarterbacks playing the entire game, along with the overall trends from preseason Week 4, take the under here for you NFL pick.

 

Free NFL Pick: Under 40½ -110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
NFL Preseason Record: (7-2 +5.14 units)

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