The SEC rivalry between the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers renews. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Florida-Tennessee picks.
Florida has played one of the toughest schedules in the country to this point, with two games against AP top-20 teams. The 2-1 Gators bounced back from their first loss of the season against Kentucky with a non-conference win against South Florida last week. Tennessee is 3-0, passing its biggest early test with a road win in overtime over then-No. 17 Pittsburgh.
This has not been much of a rivalry of late, as Florida has won five straight in the series and 16 of the previous 17. Will the Gators' dominance continue?
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 4 game between Florida and Tennessee (odds via PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Florida vs. Tennessee Game Info
Date: Saturday, Sept. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Weather: 81 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, 8 mph WSW wind
Florida vs. Tennessee Odds Analysis
Tennessee is firmly entrenched as a -10.5 point favorite, as that number is uniform across all major sportsbooks. There has been excellent two-way action early on this game, as the favored Volunteers have received 53% of the cash and tickets.
The total ranges between a low of 62 at PointsBet and Caesars to a high of 62.5 elsewhere. Currently, 60% percent of the tickets account for 62% of the handle on the Over.
Florida vs. Tennessee Picks
Florida vs. Tennessee ATS Pick
Tennessee -10.5 (-107)
After beating No. 7 Utah in the season opener, many were quick to anoint Billy Napier as the head coach that will finally bring some consistency back to the Florida program, while quarterback Anthony Richardson's Heisman Trophy odds shortened drastically. However, Kentucky held Richardson to a 3.9 QBR and just 4.1 yards per pass the following week. He then threw two interceptions without a touchdown on 10-for-18 passing last week against South Florida.
The lack of respect the Gators' last two opponents have shown for Richardson throwing the ball has bottled up his running lanes, and he has not been able to replicate the 106-yard rushing and three-touchdown performance against Utah. Conversely, Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker has averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and has a quality 85.3 passing grade, per Pro Football Focus. Thus, the quarterback disparity is a big reason we expect the Volunteers to cover this big spread.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is likely reminding his team all week how one-sided this rivalry has been, and we expect the Volunteers to use that as motivation to cover for the third time in their last eight home meetings with Florida.
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Florida vs. Tennessee O/U Pick
Over 62 (-110)
One of the easiest ways to cash an Over is to have teams that run a lot of plays, increasing the number of possessions. The Volunteers are again playing at a breakneck speed this year, following a season where they led the nation in plays per minute. Considering Tennessee ranked fifth in Rushing Success Rate and 22nd in EPA/Rush last season, we expect positive regression for a team that was held to just 2.6 yards per carry against a stout Pittsburgh front.
Despite playing two MAC teams (Ball State and Akron), the Volunteers still rank 94th or worse defensively in Power Success Rate and rushing explosiveness. That should play well into Florida's desired game plan, to run the ball at will and hide Richardson's weaknesses in the passing game.
Florida vs. Tennessee Prop Pick
Tennessee team total Over 36.5 (-120)
Heupel immediately improved Tennessee from a three-win to a seven-win team in his first year on the job and has already been rewarded with a contract extension based on the team's performance. The Volunteers' offensive statistics under Heupel's guidance are staggering. So with us liking Tennessee to cover and for the game to go over the projected total, it makes sense to double down on its team total.
The Under is 7-0 in Tennessee's last seven September games against AP-ranked teams, but this much more explosive Volunteers offense will do its part in bucking that trend.
Where to Bet on Florida-Tennessee Picks
Florida-Tennessee picks made 9/22/2022 at 6:09 a.m. ET