Finding NFL Picks Value in Week 4 Prop Options

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 25, 2014 1:56 PM GMT

After sharing my favorite Week 4 NFL Quarterback special props elsewhere on the site, I will now look at some of the remaining special props for this week. 

First, a look back at Week 3's results. I stupidly recommended something positive about the Jacksonville Jaguars, clearly forgetting who they are. Jacksonville had an 'over/under' of three sacks allowed last week against the Colts after Chad Henne went down 10 times in Week 2. Alas, I leaned 'under' and Indy got to Henne three times and Blake Bortles once. My favorite prop last week was 'over/under' points allowed by Carolina against Pittsburgh as the Panthers hadn't allowed a first-half point yet. I leaned 'under' and that one pushed when the Steelers' Shaun Suisham made a 45-yard field goal on the final play of the half. I did correctly project 'under' 3.5 winless teams left after Week 3. The Saints, Giants, Chiefs and Colts all won, leaving only the Bucs, Raiders and Jaguars. The two other specials from last week won't be resolved until the end of the season.

 

Will Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown Break the NFL Record of 21 Straight Games with at Least Five Catches?
Yes is -200 and no +150. Here's a pretty obscure NFL record that Brown tied last week. He had a 19th consecutive game with at least five catches and 50 yards. The Jets' Laveranues Coles was the last to do it in 2002-03. The record for just having at least five catches in consecutive games is 21 set by Jacksonville's Jimmy Smith from Dec. 3, 2000 to Sept. 15, 2002. The Steelers host Tampa Bay this week, visit Jacksonville next and then are at Cleveland. Three pretty lousy teams for Browns to reach 22 straight. The Bucs are No. 23 against the pass, the Jags 32nd and the Browns 27th. If Brown stays healthy it does seem likely, making this a secure NFL pick to make.

Free NFL Pick: Yes.

 

Will Any Team Score More than 56 Points in a Game in the 2014 Regular Season?
No is the heavy -1000 favorite with yes at +600. This prop is in the wake of the Atlanta Falcons putting up a season-high 56 points on Tampa Bay in Week 2. It's obviously not that easy putting up 56 points. That was the most for any team in 2013, a 56-31 win by the Chiefs against Oakland. In 2012, Seattle beat Arizona 58-0 and New England beat Indianapolis 59-24. In 2011, the Saints beat the Colts 62-7.

Free NFL Pick: Take a shot at that price. Maybe the Broncos can do it in one of their games against the lousy Raiders.

 

'Over/Under' 13.5 Rushes and/or 55.5 Yards for San Francisco's Frank Gore
All four options are -115. Are the Niners phasing the 31-year-old Gore out a bit? In the season's first three games his carries have gone from 16 to 13 to 6. His yards have dropped from 66 to 63 to last week's 10. Gore’s six carries tied for his fewest since Nov. 29, 2010 when he had five. His 10 yards were his fewest since Jan. 1, 2012, when he had nine. However, San Francisco will want to eat some clock this week against the up-tempo Eagles. Plus offensive coordinator Greg Roman said this week the team remains committed to Gore. The Eagles rank 13th against the run, allowing 105.7 yards per game.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over' both.

 

Which NFL Coach Will Be the First To Be Fired?
I addressed this back in the preseason when the Cowboys' Jason Garrett was the favorite. He's not anymore with Dallas off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start. Garrett is listed at 10/1 on this prop. Oakland's Dennis Allen is the 3/2 favorite and there already have been media reports that the Raiders are thinking about it. Team officials even have settled on his interim replacement: current offensive line coach Tony Sparano, the former Dolphins head coach. Ironically, it could be the Dolphins who give Sparano another head-coaching gig. They play the Raiders in London this week. Should Oakland get pounded by a mediocre Miami team, then Allen could be a goner because the Raiders on then on a bye week. Also ironically, Miami coach Joe Philbin is the second favorite at 3/1. He angered his quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, this week by leaving him twisting in the wind on whether Tannehill would start Sunday's game (he will).  The interesting name on this prop is San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh at 10/1. Just think if the Niners lose a third straight this week. Then you have the Michigan rumors.

Free NFL Pick: Since I believe the Raiders lose Sunday's game, take Allen.