Finding NFL Betting Value in Most Unbettable Day of Season

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, August 28, 2014 1:39 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014 1:39 PM GMT

Fake football ends tonight, and while it may be tempting to leave tonight alone, saving your cash for next week, there is still some solid value in the betting odds tonight. 

Patriots vs. Giants
According to reports, the Giants’ starters will at the very least “start,” this game against the Patriots, but they won’t be in there for long. Even though their implementation of the new offense has been a little shaky, the Giants cannot risk injury here in the final preseason game, just a little more than a week away from their first game.

Even though the Patriots likely will be employing the same strategy, they will get a nice extended look at their rookie quarterback, Jimmy Garappolo. Garoppolo has played well in the preseason, and will get a series or two against the Giants’ starters. According to an ESPN report out two days ago, Eli Manning and the Giants starters will be in the game for 15-18 plays this week. However after they leave, Garoppolo and the Patriots will have the advantage. This kid is fighting to be the backup, and one more good performance could get him the chance to start learning under, and backing up Tom Brady.

My Free NFL Pick: Patriots +3

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Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now Seattle has some big questions at backup quarterback, and it might not play well into this fourth preseason game in Oakland. These two teams have played one another in the fourth week of the preseason every year since 2006, and while this is unconfirmed, the 'under' has cashed in at least six, and maybe seven of them.

After the NFL Odds total opened around 40 points, it has slowly declined throughout the week. On Monday I we put out a play at 40 points, but even at 39 ½ or 39, it’s still a good play.

Terrelle Pryor is set to play some more this week, and Tarvaris Jackson might get some run as well. This is not the greatest offensive duo for the Hawks, but their first and second string defenses should continue to play well against an equally slow Raiders offense. Derek Carr looks to be the man set to get most of the reps for the Raiders. Even though he could play well, with the history of this game, it’s hard not to play the under.

My Free NFL Pick: Bet under 39 total points

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49ers vs. Texans
The 49ers have been one of the fastest falling teams on everyone’s depth chart this offseason, and for the fourth week of the preseason, it’s not different for me. Their NFL odds are at +3 in Houston this week, and I cannot fade them fast enough against the Texans.

Houston is still dealing with a quarterback situation, and they will want to get a good look at both of their backups right now. Ryan Fitzpatrick has already been named the starter, and even though it isn’t known whether he will play in this game, Case Keenum and Tom Savage will. Savage is gaining ground in the backup job according to a report by NBC Sports. If he plays well in this game, he could send Keenum packing.  If that’s the case, it could lead to a Houston win and cover here.

My Free NFL Pick: Texans -3 at Pinnacle Sports

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