Finding Early Betting Value As Super Bowl 50 Odds Hit The Market

Kevin Stott

Monday, January 25, 2016 7:09 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 25, 2016 7:09 PM UTC

The odds for Super Bowl 50 between Panthers and Broncos are out. We analyze which numbers may move where, the expected ranges of the two major marketplaces and possible NFL picks.

***Houndreds Of Proposition Wagers Available At SBR's Super Bowl 50 Betting Guide***
***Don't Miss Our Cam Newton's Prop Picks***

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Free Super Bowl Picks: Panthers -2½ 1st Half;  Over 22½ 1st Half -120
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPowerat Ladbrokes


Introduction & WTF Does Santa Claus Have To Do With The Super Bowl?
Super Bowl 50 will be taking place 13 days from now, on Sunday, February 7th at Levis Stadium in Santa Clara, California as the AFC Champion Denver Broncos and the NFC champion Carolina Panthers lock horns to determine who will be the new NFL champions and get to take that wonderful Vince Lombardi Trophy back to their home city. And from now until the Sunday after this coming Sunday, we will all be browbeaten with talk of the two worthy combatants, and Cam Newton and Peyton Manning, and the Point Spread, and how expensive the Commercials are, and what great stories these teams are, and on and on and on until the two weeks seem like a damn month and you wish they’d just play the stupid game and get it over with. So best prepare your head for the onslaught, Bubba. It will surely be thick and it will surely be dumb. And there will be so much Hype on everything that when you step outside and hear the roaring Silence and smell the strange fresh Air, you will think it’s the Silence and the Fresh Air which are out of line. This is what this has come to. Overkill to the 9nth degree, similar to US Presidential Elections, and FanDuel, and DraftKings ads, and Car Alarms, and all of the other meaningless noise we’ve been forced to become part of our Modern Lives. Welcome to the Digital Age. Now where are my purple ear plugs?

In short, this is just another NFL football game, although it will determine the league champions, and because there will be so much spotlight shone on this 60 minutes of American Football, and because of the Props bets, and the realization there won’t be any more football to watch or wager on until August, too many people will over-bet this game, both in amounts and numbers of wagers, forcing bets because they are there and because it’s the Super Bowl. And this is fine. That’s par for the course and to each his own and if the Recreational player wants to fire, fire, fire, that’s part of the reason why this Industry exists and why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook can have a Super Bowl Props sheet release which has become more anticipated than the next Stephen King novel. The laws of Supply and Demand are at work here, and the World knows about American Football now and the demand to bet on the Super Bowl has just become another part of the Holiday this first Sunday in February has seemed to become here in the US. It’s weird having a whole day based around a game, but then again, we have another day here based around some fat dude in a red suit riding a sleigh through the night skies who comes to your house and then goes down your chimney to give you toys. And for all this, he just wants cookies and milk? Something stinks here.


Point Spread Should Stay In Tight Range: Expectations Of Talk & Nothingness
The Point Spread for this game is currently in a 3½- to 5-point range and the 3½ Irish operator Paddy Power opened its Super Bowl odds board and still has the game at (-110) which will likely never be seen by most bettors worldwide. A couple of UK books have Carolina -4 (SkyBet, BetVictor) although the vast majority are hanging a 4½ (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Bwin) at -110 vigorish (Monday morning). Offshore, there are 4’s (Pinnacle, The Greek) and is showing a 5, but everyone else is offering (Panthers minus) 4½ while here in sunny but chilly Las Vegas, there are also 4’s at some smaller joints (Treasure Island, Jerry’s Nugget, William Hill), a couple 5’s in-state (Station Casinos, Atlantis Reno), but all 4½’s for now. It seems the Logical range here will be between 4 and 6 with any 3½’s swallowed up by Panthers backers and any 5½’s or 6’s quickly gobbled up by the Wiseguys, should they appear, both for possible perceived value or maybe to create Middle possibilities on potential Carolina 4- and 5-point victories. I don’t think we’ll see 3½’s, but quite possibly 5½’s at some point next week, as more General Public money likely comes in on the NFC champion Panthers, who have lost just one game all season (at Atlanta). So 4 to 5 is a good range for this Point Spread as heavy hitters will likely buy up any 5½’s or 6’s just because that’s the way it’s done, not necessarily because they think Denver won’t lose by 6 or more. Matt Holt, VP of Business Development at CG Technology said on local ESPN radio that almost all the money he had seen so far, both Sharps and the General Public, had been bet on the Panthers, so this number will likely go more toward 5 and away from 3 this week and we will all see if it breaches the 5 and could head to 6 over the next two weeks from a heavy influx of Panthers money. Usually these things don’t escalate as high as we think and as some speculate, and this hitting 7 seems impossible although irrationality has overtaken Common Sense on our planet as Donald Trump runs for US President and people worry more about what’s happening in Chinese business markets than what’s in their own refrigerators. The Point Spread should close around 4½ or 5 here with all these early rumblings of non-stop Carolina money coming in having to deal with the reality there may be Sharps ready to gobble up 5½’s and up and that the AFC’s #1 seed Denver Broncos are a pretty darn good football team and could very well win this game.


Total (Points)
The Total for this game is in a tight 45- to 46-point (Treasure Island) range with all 45’s and 45½’s for now and that one 46 and will likely eventually trickle up over the next two weeks to a majority of 45½’s and 46’s if history repeats itself and the General Public likes to bet the Over, and they do. This won’t go down to 44½ as unless Carolina QB Cam Newton gets hurt in some freak accident over the next two weeks and we have to see Panthers backup Derek Anderson or if a freak Winter Storm hits the Bay Area and it’s freezing in Santa Clara. And how high can this Total potentially go? Probably 47 at its peak, but that number will likely get much buyback from Under bettors. And the way the top-ranked Denver Defense has played this season, having a Totals number in the mid-40’s as opposed to the low-50’s as sportsbooks like Bovada were offering up in their generic AFC-NFC matchups all season, makes sense to oddsmakers, as for the Broncos to win this game they will have to control the pace and with veteran QB Peyton Manning, Head Coach Gary Kubiak and genius Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips have the braintrust to try to pull it off. But slowing down Newton and his crew will take much. And if you want a 46 (to bet Under) it’s -125 at Bet365, while if you’re looking for a 44 (to bet Over), it’s -133 at Bet365 right now.


Money Line (Winner)
The range for the Money Line on the screens for Super Bowl 50 right now Online, in Europe, Offshore and Las Vegas is between Carolina -180 and -225. The lowest prices for the Panthers Money Line in the current marketplace are at Treasure Island (-180), Betfred (-187) SIA (-190) and the aforementioned Paddy Power (-190) while the highest prices on the favorites are at Stan James (-225), Coral (-225), BetPhoenix (+220) and TopBet (+220). The best takeback prices on those wanting the Broncos on the Money Line can be found at Heritage (+182), Boylesports (+180), Bookmaker (+180), BetPhoenix (+180) and Pinnacle (+178). It seems if someone is sure they want to back the NFC champion Panthers but aren’t sure about (likely) giving between 3½ to 5½ points, locking in on Carolina on the Money Line at the relatively cheap -187 to -200 price range. It sounds good, but if you told me before the NFL Playoffs started the Panthers and Broncos would be meeting in the Super Bowl, it seems that Denver would be slight favorites or the game would be Even. And if you told me before the NFL Regular Season started that the Broncos and Panthers would be meeting in Super Bowl 50 (Broncos-Panthers 127/1, Super Bowl Matchups, 5Dimes) and that the Point Spread would be 4½ then I would have guaranteed you the Broncos would have been the favorites. There’s so much—maybe 7 points and around 400 cents—about Peyton Manning’s current abilities built into the Point Spread and Money Line numbers.


First Half Odds, Total Points
The Panthers are listed as -2½ -120 favorites at Paddy Power for the 1st Half, and that’s the best price on the odds screens right now and laying the minimal lumber and backing the team which has outscored really talented NFC West opponents Seattle and Arizona, 55-7 in the 1st Quarter seems computer-like in its nature. Even at Home and even with Superman as your QB, beating (and smashing) the Cardinals and Seahawks back-to-back in 2016 is no small feat as those are two of the best 5 overall teams in the NFL. Newton will want to get off to that hot start just to show the Denver Defense his prolific Offense isn’t scared of them, and with him running where the Patriots’ Qb Tom Brady couldn’t and having the cabinet chock full of eager Offensive weapons in RB Jonathan Stewart, FB Mike Tolbert, TE Greg Olsen and WRs Ted Ginn Jr., Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown and Rookie Devin Funchess, means he can go to whomever he wants to and the Denver D won’t be able to focus on stopping just two guys. Newton’s health, attitude and legs are worth (at least) 3 points here in this situation and the Carolina Defense and LB extraordinaire Luke Kuechly may now be addicted to scoring TDs themselves. The Panthers laying 2½ points in the 1st Half just smells good, like lilac. As does the Over 22½ (Ladbrokes) as both teams should have at least one 1st Half TD (with XPs =14) and there should be at least 3 FGs in the 1st Half in such an important game (9 points). But with the way Carolina and potential NFL and Super Bowl MVP Newton (-120, Ladbrokes) have played in 1st Halves lately against great teams, it’s hard to see them scoring only one TD in the first 30 minutes, even against this Defense which won’t be playing at Home here or in nasty weather.

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