Game-by-Game O/U Predictions As Final Preseason Week Looms On The Horizon

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 4:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016 4:55 PM UTC

In this column, we sift through the NFL odds board and serve up NFL picks with the best betting lines available for each and every game in week 4 of the NFL preseason. Check it out.

Preseason Week 3 Recap
Dress Rehearsal week served up many blowouts, more than NFL bettors expected. Indeed, only two games proved close on the scoreboard – the Patriots vs. Panthers and Giants vs. Jets. Fourteen of the sixteen games on offer were lopsided, some of which cracked the totals trading with impunity. Admittedly, it wreaked havoc with many of our NFL picks.

NIKKI’s Game-by-Game Record in Preseason Betting, Week 1 to Week 3
SU 18-14
ATS 15-15*
TOTAL 17-11-2*
*(Two games omitted in week 1 for ATS and Total predictions, no odds available at the time of writing)

Another week looms on the horizon, another opportunity to flex our wagering muscles. The ultimate one of the preseason, mind, and a week that will feature mostly backups and hopefuls looking to secure a spot on a roster. If the first three weeks were tough, this could be the toughest round to predict. We love the challenge.

Here goes…


NFL Wednesday, August 31st

Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have averaged 22 points a game all while conceding 17 through three games. The Redskins are not far off with 20 points scored and 19 conceded. By those numbers, very little separates the pair as far as their production goes this month. Combining the opposite ends of the ball we get 39 points (22+17 = 39/ 20 +19 =39). Not surprisingly, the total on the NFL odds board is 39. As such, the 38.5 total available with The Greek holds appeal, particularly to OVER bettors.

Free NFL Picks: Over 38.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek 

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NFL Thursday, September 1

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
The Patriots are riding a three-game winning streak with no nonsense coach Bill Belichick pulling the strings on the sidelines. The first two accounts cashed on the OVER while the dress rehearsal clash with the Panthers served up the UNDER for NFL bettors. On average, the Patriots scored 25.33 points per game and conceded 20.33. By those numbers, the 40-point total at most sports betting outlets looks rather low. That has all to do with the G-men and their stagnant offense. Last week’s account was case-and-point as the first team was held utterly pointless in the first half of the game and struggled to move the ball. It’s unlikely the first team will get much playing time in week 4, which means the backups and hopefuls will get plenty of cracks. So far, they’ve been able to put up points better than the so-called top unit. All in all, this is a tough one to call. Given how poorly the Giants have accounted the consensus bet appears to be the UNDER. For our money, we’re leaning towards the OVER. Specifically with the 39.5 points total available with The Greek where you’ll also get 100% cash bonus (for further details click here).

Free NFL Picks: Over 37.5 -110
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles
By the stats, the Eagles appear to be solid on both sides of the ball. In three games, they’ve scored 67 points and conceded 32 for a solid +35-point differential. The Jets, meanwhile, have played it a lot closer scoring 55 and conceding 56 through three games. Given the numbers on the defensive side of the ball, it’s not surprising to have this game hanging on a low 39-point total. However, the quarterback position appears to be up for grabs yet in Philly and Sam Bradford looks determined to snag the role; if his last turnout were any indication. That alone has us considering the OVER on our NFL picks. Once again, The Greek has the best line of 38.5 available (at the time of writing), one of the top sportsbooks according to SBR ratings. 

Free NFL Picks: Over 37.5 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their first preseason win, a come from behind triumph over Cincinnati Bengals at EverBank in the last matchup slated on Sunday. It’s a short week for the Jaguars, a quick turnaround to get set for the Falcons. Atlanta benefits from additional rest having played their dress rehearsal on Thursday. The extra few days will be useful to prepare for this final game but it remains to be seen how much risk Dan Quinn is willing to take with his starters in the final week considering the injuries they sustained against the Dolphins. Too many uncertainties have us leaning towards the UNDER 40 with BetOnline.

Free NFL Picks: Under 40 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
The Titans and Dolphins were big winners in the dress rehearsal week. Titans upset the Raiders on the road and the Dolphins underlined their home advantage with a win over the Falcons. The Titans have shown they can put up the points – 70 points scored and 50 conceded over three games in the preseason. Dolphins have played it closer with just 58 points scored and 57 points conceded. Bookmakers are conservative in their estimation with most sportsbooks hanging this game on 39.5 points. Look carefully and you’ll find 39 points available with some books, including top-rated Pinnacle.

Free NFL Picks: Over 38
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
There’s not much to say about either of these franchises in the preseason. The visitors have played it safe while the hosts have had mixed accounts. It’s, therefore, impossible to say which way this game will go. Consider Rex Ryan rested his starters in the dress rehearsal week he’s unlikely to risk them in week 4. Lions have a lot of work to do to get ready for the regular season, particularly keeping penalties in check. Savvy sportsbook Bet Cris, amongst others including Just Bet and William Hill, offer up the highest total for this game of 38.5. Clearly, this is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 38.5 -110
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Depending on your choice sportsbook, the clash between the Colts and Bengals hangs on either a 39 or 39.5 point total. The Greek is offering a 38.5-point total which is rather tempting if you’re considering the Over bet. While the Bengals have put up 67 points and conceded 57 points the Colts have struggled to move the offense and put up just 60 points through three games all while conceding 70 points. By the numbers, we’re seriously considering the OVER on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Over 38.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
After blah accounts in the first couple of games, the Steelers lit up the Superdome with a 27-14 victory that saw the UNDER 45 total cash. The Panthers succumbed to the Patriots in the dress rehearsal week in a 19-17 loss that saw the UNDER cash. Overall, the pair has gone through the motions in the preseason, you could say. It’s hard to see them risking much in this final game of the preseason.

Free NFL Picks: Under 39.6 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
The clash between the Ravens and Saints is served up on 40.5-point total with most top-rated sportsbooks, but, despite these lofty expectations (in the context of week 4 which sees the lowest totals  trading across the board), there’s a strong case for the UNDER. The Ravens have averaged almost 24 points a game while the Saints have put up a measly 45 points in three games, of which 23 points were scored across their last two games. If the Saints feeble offensive production continues, the UNDER should be the winning bet. BetOnline is offering the best total for UNDER bettors to sink their teeth into at 41.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns
Bears and Browns have struggled to move the ball and score points in the preseason. As a result, bookies offer up the lowest total of the entire slate of NFL games in week 4. Even with the lowest point projection of 37 nobody would be surprised if the score failed to crack the total. In fact, the Browns have scored exactly that many points in three games, which is telling. All while conceding almost double (71).  The Bears have scored even less – 29 points through three games. Arguably, the Bears have had a tougher preseason schedule with a date against the Broncos in week 1 that saw them go pointless. Everything points to the UNDER bet, obviously. Yet, there’s a niggling feeling that with all the woes these teams have undergone already this could be a right gong show.

Free NFL Picks: Over 37 -107
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Depending on your choice sportsbook the total for this game ranges from 37.5 to 38.5, which makes all the difference if you’re leaning towards the OVER or UNDER on your NFL picks. Packers have conceded just 11 points per game in the preseason while the Chiefs have conceded jut 15 points. In terms of scoring, the Packers put up 58 points and the Chiefs 59, which brings the average points scored under 20 points per game for both teams. Putting all those numbers together, it’s quite likely this will be a low-scoring affair.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 38.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have kept it tight on the scoresheet through three games. Averaging just under 20 points scored and conceding 12 points per game. The Rams, meanwhile, have also averaged just under 20 points scored but conceded just over 20 points per game. The more established and experienced Vikings can capitalise and potentially crack the low total in their preseason finale at home.

Update: With Teddy Bridgewater succumbing to a season-ending knee injury the Vikings turn to Shaun Hill as the starter in week 4 of the preseason. The impact is immediate on the NFL odds board as the odds for the game plummet, including the total, which is now down to a low of 34.5 with 5Dimes from an opening 36.5. Essentially, the Vikings are a well-built team and the sum-total of their parts suggests writing them off prematurely might not be the way to go.


Free NFL Picks: Over 34.5 -105​​​​​​​
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Texans and Cowboys collide in a game that is sure to garner a lot of attention, mainly those anxious about the Cowboys now that Romo is sure to miss at least half of the season, if not more. One thing to consider, the Texans have put up 74 points in three games while the Cowboys have put up 84 points through three games.  All hinges on which players actually play in this game but it’s quite likely this will be a right cracker.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 37.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Broncos have some concerns to address in the quarterback position while the Cardinals look to close the preseason with at least one win, surely. The problem is in three games, the Cards have only put up a paltry 37 points, the bulk of which came in week 3. This is a right tossup on our NFL picks as it could technically go either way. Considering the Broncos have yet to decide the backup role properly, this is an opportunity for Mark Sanches and Paxton Lynch to make their cases.

Free NFL Picks: Over 37​​​​​​​
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders
The Seahawks and Raiders collide in the final preseason game at the Coliseum before they focus on their respective campaigns. The Seahawks are coming off a 27-17 win over the Cowboys while the Raiders are coming off a 27-14 loss to the Titans. It’s the final week and most players will be looking to get through this game without a scratch. Over the course of three preseason games, the pair has averaged under 20 points scored and conceded. More likely than not, this should be a low-scoring affair.

Free NFL Picks: Under 38.5 -107 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers
This is Chip Kelly’s last look at the Niners before settling on his final 53-man roster and starting quarterback. There’s a lot of incentive as a result for the Niners to win out in this game, particularly Colin Kaepernick, should he decide to focus on football rather than making political statements. That’s, after all, his job if he has one, after all, is said and done. Chargers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Vikings on the road. Short week and quick turnaround. Don’t see the Chargers lighting up overly.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 39.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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