The NFL is one week closer to the Super Bowl as they’ll have four more games in the NFL Divisional Round over the weekend. There are plenty of spots to look at in these games for sports betting. Here are my two favorite player props of the weekend for our NFL picks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 04:35 PM EST at Lambeau Field
The first game of the NFL Divisional round will be played between the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams. It looks like Jared Goff will start for the Rams even with a banged-up thumb with John Wolford ruled out. But it’s the other quarterback I want to talk about.
Aaron Rodgers has put up ridiculous passing records throughout his career and has dominated this season. But he’s also got some sneaky legs that have ran for 149 yards on 38 carries this season, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. On the season, the Rams have allowed 61 carries from quarterbacks for 292 yards. That’s 4.79 yards per carry and there will be times in this game where the pass rush gets to Rodgers, making him look at rushing for a first down or just extra yards instead of taking a sack.
Rodgers has his rushing yards prop set at 9.5 yards at the best betting sites. One rush for a first down on first down would get the yardage. Of course, Rodgers might kneel and lose yardage rushing, but the expectation is that Rodgers gets at least two rushes of about five yards in this game, at least. He’s had eight games this season with double-digit rushing yards and if this game is close, every yard will matter. I think there's plenty of value on Rodgers’ rushing yards and would get it below 10.
NFL Pick: Rodgers Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 16, 2021 - 08:15 PM EST at Bills Stadium
The Ravens will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills who finished the season 13-3. The goal for the Ravens will be to stay on offense as long as possible, keep the defense fresh and make sure the Bills don’t get many opportunities on defense. That means the Ravens will try to run the ball behind either JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards or Lamar Jackson.
The Bills have been one of the worst rushing defenses in the league this season and the expectation is that the Ravens offense can do serious damage on the ground against the Bills and win this game without forcing too much in the secondary. Lamar Jackson’s line for completions is set at 17.5 at +100 at the online sportsbooks. There’s value there. Jackson had just 17 completions against the Titans in the playoffs and hasn’t reached more than 17 completions in a single game since the Ravens' loss to the Patriots in November.
Instead, the Ravens utilized his legs, where he has had big gains week after week, surpassing 90 yards four times in his last six games. On the season, quarterbacks have already run for 326 yards per carry on 65 attempts, which is good for over five yards per carry. Jackson is unlike all other quarterbacks when it comes to his ability to rush the football. The big gains and big plays will come on the ground and the Ravens really want to limit turnovers and poor decisions out of Jackson’s hands. He’s going to get a limited amount of attempts to throw the football. I love under 17.5 completions for Jackson here.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.