Week 1 is right around the corner, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has checked in on the Season Specials markets available through FanDuel and shares his NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.
How to bet NFL season specials
There weren’t many edges to be found in the one-way markets available in the “Season Specials” menu via FanDuel, and the majority of what’s listed there should be viewed strictly through a recreational lens.
Still, a couple of the offerings caught my eye and show value based on my projections and handicapping process:
- Create custom projections
- Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
- Convert the probability to odds
- Compare my odds with the FanDuel numbers
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Best FanDue NFL Player Specials: Bets
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James Conner to score 10+ rushing touchdowns (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐
Listen, I didn’t expect to land on many Arizona Cardinals props, but my numbers are showing value here.
I have Conner projected for 8.1 rushing touchdowns, and my price for him to reach double-digit scores is +286. The difference is a positive expected value of 19% on the +360 FanDuel odds.
It’s worth adding that publishing editor Sean Tomlinson also included Conner to go Over 5.5 touchdowns in his Cardinals betting preview.
Nick Chubb to score 15+ rushing touchdowns (+1000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
This is a long number for a proven touchdown scorer. Chubb has topped out with a career-high 12 rushing scores twice, and I have him projected for just 9.5 in 2023. Still, the +1000 via FanDuel presents a lot of value based on my projections.
I’d price this prop at +609, so we’re landing an expected value of 55%. Just remember, a lot needs to go right for this prop to cash, including Chubb remaining healthy. For instance, his Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns is priced at -142 via FanDuel, and my numbers grade that line with a negative expected value of 6%.
Myles Garrett to record 15+ sacks (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐
With Garrett recording 16 sacks in consecutive seasons, I was a little surprised to see this prop available. I have the Defensive Player of the Year candidate projected for 15.2 sacks this season, so I’d price Garrett to record 15-plus sacks at -120 for a positive expected value of 9% compared to the +100 via FanDuel.
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Isiah Pacheco to score 10+ rushing touchdowns (+430 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
This prop is showing a slight edge based on my projection of Pacheco recording 7.0 rushing touchdowns, and it’s further encouraging that the second-year running back returned to preseason action following offseason shoulder surgery.
I’d price this prop at +390, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of 8% on the +430 odds via FanDuel.
T.J. Watt to record 15+ sacks (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐
Watt recording 20-plus sacks showed value in my best DraftKings NFL player specials, but I actually prefer this prop – although it doesn’t check out with the same expected value. Let's be honest, 20 sacks is a heck of a lot.
I have Watt projected for 13.9 sacks, so my price for him to reach this benchmark is +154. The difference in my number and the +175 odds via FanDuel is a positive expected value of 8%.
Don't forget, Watt’s just two years removed from racking up 22 sacks across just 15 games, too.
D.K. Metcalf to score 10+ receiving touchdowns (+300 via FanDuel) ⭐
The fifth-year receiver reached this total in consecutive seasons before dipping to just six scores during the 2022 campaign. Publishing editor Sean Tomlinson recommended Metcalf’s Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns in our Seahawks betting preview, and I’m also seeing a small edge with this prop.
I have Metcalf projected for 7.5 receiving touchdowns and would price him at +277 to hit the 10-plus benchmark for a positive expected value of 6% compared to the +300 odds via FanDuel.
Derrick Henry to score 15+ rushing touchdowns (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
This is another total that while a definite long shot, is showing enough of an advantage to have my attention. I also already have Henry to go Over his 8.5 rushing touchdown total in pocket from our Titans betting preview.
With a projection of 9.7 rushing scores for Henry, I’d price this total at +890 instead of the +1200 via FanDuel. The difference is a healthy positive expected value of 31%.
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