False Favorites & Top Dogs for Wild Card Weekend

Eli Manning

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, January 3, 2017 7:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017 7:36 PM UTC

The regular season is in the rearview mirror and it is time to move ahead for those of us betting NFL football to the postseason. This is great time to make one last push for football cash.

This is the second season and I will be out to do better against the NFL odds in this article and Odds Couple video than 27-23-1 ATS record choosing false favorites or top underdogs. Here is what I have for betting NFL football this weekend.


Detroit Lions

Both NFL teams come in playing far from their best football. Detroit after looking like a lock to win the NFC North for the first time in 23 years, closed 0-3 and 0-4 ATS. Seattle could not hold on to the No.2 slot in the NFC with a 2-2 and 1-3 ATS finish. Though around 70 percent of bets placed early have been on the Lions, the Seahawks have gone from -7 to -8 at home.

Though Seattle is a noteworthy home team for years, there 4-3-1 ATS record is similar to last year's at 4-4 against the spread, which might suggest Pete Carroll's club is no longer has a true juggernaut in the Northwest. Though the Lions are laboring, defensively they could keep the score down and the Seahawks defense is not the same without safety Earl Thomas.

Also did research and though the sample size is small, still rather convincing. The last four teams to enter the NFL Playoffs with three or more spread losses (Saints -2008, Broncos -2011, Lions -2014 and Ravens -2014) are a perfect 4-0 ATS. For NFL picks, I have Detroit as a live dog and the best line offered is at 5Dimes.

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Raiders/Texans Under

It comes without any surprise the total on the first playoff encounter has sunk from 37.5 to 36.5, given the quarterback situations for both teams. In either case, one would surmise both head coaches will live or die with a war in the trenches, looking to run the ball and picks spots to throw, hoping nothing bad results when passing, like turnovers. Cannot imagine in either case when the starting quarterbacks are actually announced this would cause the total to rise and if anything only see it going lower and I'll agree with line movement direction and back the UNDER.

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New York Giants

Of the three choices, this is my least favorite but think it is worth a look. Green Bay is attracting quite a bit of support, however, backing the Pack comes with risks even with a white-hot Aaron Rodgers playing at Lambeau Field. The Giants are the superior defensive team and have the secondary that can curtail what Green Bay likes to do, especially if they can stop the run. New York is real mediocre on offense, yet two or three passes to Odell Beckham Jr. could change the complexion of the game against depleted Packers secondary. The G-Men have two playoffs win at Green Bay with Eli Manning at the controls and are 11-2 ATS as a wild card team in the playoffs and the Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in most recent home playoff games.

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