False Favorites & Top Dogs to Consider for Your Week 7 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 12:02 AM GMT

Already at Week 7 in the season and the NFL odds from the sportsbooks have this football handicapper fired up and ready for action! Keep reading to learn why, it just might put money in your pocket.

Last Sunday we had our second sweep of the season, as I recommended three underdogs for NFL picks and each won outright. This takes my record to 13-5 ATS, 72.2 percent and while I have no grand illusions this will continue, my wagering account is building and yours might also.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of Heritage.

 

False Favorite - St. Louis Too Large a Favorite
The Cleveland Browns are 2-4 and a little better pass defense at crunch time against San Diego and Denver and the Browns could be 4-2. Cleveland surrendered 604 passing yards in those two contests, however, St. Louis does not present such a challenge with the league's 31st passing game. In fact, the Rams are the only team in the NFL not averaging at least 300 yards of offense a game, which has to help Cleveland's 30th ranked total defense mark. When looking at the two quarterbacks in this contest, Josh McCown is well ahead of Nick Foles, in completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt, touchdowns and has fewer interceptions. St. Louis at -5.5 really seems high when you realize the Brownies are 9-1 ATS off a SU loss.

 

Top Dog - Hungry Jets Ready for New England
The New York Jets (4-1 SU and ATS) have not won a regular season game in Foxboro in six years (Did have 28-21 victory in 2011 playoffs), are nearly double digit underdogs and cannot wait to face the Patriots. The Jets players might not be aware they have covered five in a row at New England, but they know that have played to near even terms with the Patriots and have the NFL's best defense and Top 8 offense. Yes, these grumpy Patriots would seek an edge to not to like Kate Upton if she was photographed wearing a green and white bikini this week. There is a boatload of reasons to back New England in this rivalry, however, Gang Green falls by only four to six digits and is my choice for sports picks.

 

False Favorite - Miami Terrible Home Favorites
Last week I was enthralled with Miami on the road and the Dolphins finally played a complete game in dismantling Tennessee 38-10 as field goal underdogs. But as I have often said, one game does not a season make, especially with the Dolphins past. Miami opened as -5.5 point favorites and were sent packing to -4. It is easy to comprehend why with the Fins 13-30-1 ATS as home favorites since 2005. The only reason they have a tie instead of an extra loss is in earlier Buffalo game they went from -2.5 to a Pick, before being routed 41-14. I loved the energy Miami played with under their new head coach, but old habits are hard to overcome and besides, Houston is 7-0 and 5-2 ATS in their existence versus the Dolphins, including perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in South Florida.