False Favorites & Top Dogs As Preseason Comes To An End In Week 4

Oakland Raiders' fan

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 5:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016 5:24 PM UTC

For those of you who have been reading my NFL football articles these last several years, you know I am a straight shooter, whose handed out winning picks with regularity and made many of you some cash.

Though this NFL preseason has not been up to my usual standards, we are coming off a winning week. As we head into the final week of the preseason, this is why it needs to be shortened.

This is a throwaway week and the easiest way to tell is reviewing the opening NFL odds at Heritage which is a sportsbook that is A+ in our rating guide, where ALL the home teams are favored, anywhere from -2.5 to -4 and the totals are 37-41. I'm not upset about this, but let's be honest, these lines are built to be very safe and limit exposure and anyone in their shoes would do the same thing.

For generating NFL picks, this is as hard is at gets because this is mostly about backups trying to get better and players trying to make teams. This is very similar to betting spring training baseball the first week, where no value exists and not much information to go on.

Thus, I will take a different tack in identifying either a false favorite or top underdog and do my best for you to be correct.


San Francisco Will Take What it Can Find
At 1-2 SU and ATS, Chip Kelly might be a lot of things but stupid is not one of them. He knows his San Francisco club has limited options and if he can do anything to build confidence in his team, even if the quarterbacks are Blaine Gabbert and maybe Colin (first amendment) Kaepernick he will.

While a case could be made San Diego coach Mike McCoy needs to win also, seeing he is current -best bet - to be the first coach fired, his wins have to come in regular season. The Niners are worth a look at top dog  in NFL odds catching +3.

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A Pair of False Favorite to Check Out for Entertainment Purposes Only
Count me among those who think when the Black and Silver are relevant, the NFL is more fun. This is supposed to be the year that Oakland climbs out their own black hole and starts contending in the AFC West. However, until the Raiders actually prove something on the field or at the very least owner Mark Davis goes to Great Clips gets an adult haircut, not sure Da Raiders can be trusted as favorites even this time a year, especially against top flight organization like Seattle.

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Miami is a three-point favorite as they play their one and only true preseason game at home. The Dolphins actually played their best game of the exhibition season in win over Atlanta last week in Orlando. With New England not having Tom Brady for quarter of season, Jets having an arduous early schedule and now two Ryan brothers in Buffalo, Miami could really use fast start to compete in AFC East and has to be completely prepared for trip to Century Link Field in opener and will absolutely care less about facing Tennessee.

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