Falcons vs. Seahawks NFL Betting Preview & Free Picks

Falcon's Matt Ryan  throws against the Denver Broncos

Friday, October 14, 2016 5:37 PM GMT

The Atlanta Falcons descend on the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field for a highly anticipated intra-conference showdown. We preview the betting odds and serve up choice NFL picks.

 

 

Falcons vs. Seahawks


To look at the NFL betting market on this game, you wouldn’t get the sense this was a clash between two first-place teams. Moreover, you’d not get a feeling of just how pivotal this clash might be towards the NFC playoff picture.

Seahawks opened as the considerable home favorites on the NFL odds board laying -6 with just about every single sportsbook. Since opening doors the NFL line has swelled up to -6.5 and, even, in some cases -7.

The intriguing bit about the market on this game is the fact that the Falcons edge the Seahawks as the consensus bet with 52.1% of tickets taken at early doors but the NFL line is conspicuously moving against them. The reverse line movement has to do with sharp bettors pounding the Seahawks as the home chalk to the tune of a whopping 89.90% of the money wagered.

This game splits the public against the sharps. The public is giving the Falcons the nod on account of their four-game winning streak going into week 5, which is the longest active winning streak right now. Plus, it’s a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to their impressive win over the Denver Broncos in week 5.

Sharps tend to take the betting trends and stats to heart. Taking a page from those: Seahawks boast a 25-5-0 SU record and a 17-12-1 ATS record since 2013 as the home team, a run of stellar form that is underscored by a 10.6 winning margin and a +0.7 differential versus the spread. That amounts to an 83.3% winning record at home (third best in the league over the last three years and a 58.6% covering ratio (eighth best in the league over the last three years).

It’s impossible to argue with stats that point to a record of success as impactful as the Seahawks have. Then there’s the fact that the Seahawks are perennially amongst the league’s heavyweights and when push comes to shove they deliver.

That said, the Seahawks are 3-1 SU on the season and coming off a bye. Positive though their record is they’ve had some adversity to deal with already – a narrow 12-10 win over the Dolphins in week 1 exacerbated by an injury to Russell Wilson; a loss to the Los Angeles Rams in week 2 exacerbated by yet another injury to Russell Wilson. Week 3 and 4 saw the Seahawks decimate the Niners and Jets, but the pair boasts just two wins between them in ten games.

The fact is this is the toughest matchup according to form this season the Seahawks face. It helps that they’re coming off a bye while the Falcons are heading into their second road game in as many weeks and coming from the Mile High altitude, but even that can’t be taken for granted. Seahawks are 2-2 ATS this season with a 6.2 winning margin and a -0.6 differential versus the spread.

Frankly, the Falcons don’t seem to be getting the respect they deserve. They are 4-1 SU and ATS with a 7-point winning margin and a +9.0 differential versus the spread. The +6.5 to +7 hanging on the NFL odds board with the Falcons just seems like a way too many points to be giving a side that is brimming with confidence and riding the momentum of a four-game winning streak. Take the Falcons plus the points on your week 6 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Picks: Falcons +7 (-130)

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

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