In our predictions for the Falcons vs. Jaguars matchup, based on the best NFL odds, we expect to see a motivated Jacksonville team after their surprising divisional loss.
On Sunday morning in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) will be seeking to revive their AFC South title defense following a disappointing defeat against the Houston Texans in Week 3. Was that Week 3 loss the wake-up call the Jaguars needed?
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) arrive with a winning record, but the question remains: do they have the offensive firepower to keep up with Trevor Lawrence if he's performing at his best?
Here are our best Falcons vs. Jaguars SGP predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Jaguars ML (-162) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Calvin Ridley Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Pitts Over 32.5 receiving yards (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +450 via DraftKings
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SGP predictions for Falcons vs. Jaguars
Jaguars ML (-162 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Following their first playoff win of the Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence era, expectations for the Jaguars were high. But this group hasn’t found its footing, losing in a surprising blowout to Houston last weekend.
Atlanta has enjoyed a better start, but it hasn’t shown much versatility offensively through three games. I’m banking on a bounce-back from Trevor Lawrence and this Jacksonville passing game, which could set up a difficult script for the Falcons as they just don’t have the passing game to mount a late comeback.
A motivated Lawrence picks his spots and leads Jacksonville to a productive day across the pond. Both DraftKings and FanDuel list the Jaguars moneyline at identical -162 odds.
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Calvin Ridley Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Calvin Ridley looked like a force of nature in his first game back after a long layoff as the Jaguars handled the Colts in Week 1. Since that contest, though, Ridley’s involvement has been limited to five total receptions for 72 yards across Jacksonville’s two losses.
The targets have still been there for Ridley, but it’s been the efficiency of his connection with Lawrence that has seemingly suffered. If we’re banking on the Jags O to get back on track in London, Ridley has to be the engine.
Ridley’s yardage prop sits at 62.5 yards (-115) at DraftKings after dropping throughout Saturday morning. At FanDuel, the prop is listed at a less favorable 66.5 yards, but you get the line with more attractive -113 odds.
Kyle Pitts Over 32.5 receiving yards (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The last time Kyle Pitts played in London, he went nuclear for nine catches, 119 yards, and a touchdown as the obvious focal point of the Atlanta offense against the Jets back in 2021. Although we shouldn’t expect the same level of involvement for the talented tight end with the present-day run-first Falcons on Sunday morning, Pitts should be able to clear this receiving line given our expected game script.
In a negative game script, Pitts is one of the most prominent targets in the offense. Even in somewhat limited opportunities this season, he’s racked up 40-plus receiving yards in two of his three games.
The Pitts receiving line at DraftKings (32.5 yards) is a yard lower than the FanDuel offering (33.5 yards). Although DraftKings has -120 odds on its Pitts prop, which is less favorable than the -113 odds at FanDuel, plugging it into our overall parlay odds puts the DraftKings offering at +450. Since the lines and odds are both more favorable on our player props at DK, that’s where we’re playing this SGP.
Falcons-Jaguars SGP picks made 09/30/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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