Falcons vs. Dolphins: Betting Edge Lies On The Over As Both Teams Show Strong Offense

Atlanta Falcons

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 5:42 PM GMT

One of the opening games on the Week 3 Preseason slate is the Falcons heading south to Miami, who comes in as a -3 favorite with a total of 43½ in the NFL Odds. We are heading right into Week 3 with more winning tickets on our minds.

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins

Starters Playing More Snaps
When it comes to the third preseason game, it’s the usually the closest we get to real football without anything counting. However, coaches value it for their starters to get them a half of football to gear up for the start of the regular season in two weeks.

This should hold true for the Falcons and Dolphins in this one. The Falcons haven’t played their starters much, or at all in the first two preseason games, so after their offensive skill players got barely into double-digit snaps in Week 2 of the preseason, I expect them to see many more than that here in Week 3.

Both coaches are rather new to head coaching, so it’s hard to know how they will treat Week 3, but with Adam Gase being new in Miami, and Dan Quinn only being on the job two years, it’s probably safe to assume both coaches won’t hold much back in the first half of their game on Thursday.

Although first half lines aren’t out just yet, it’s also safe to assume that it should be somewhere in the low 20s. However, a better play on this game might just be the overall total with NFL odds of 43½. The Dolphins are coming off giving up 41 points to the Cowboys in Week 2 of the preseason. While the Falcons’ preseason defense has been good, they have also played the Redskins and Browns, two teams that don’t exactly scream preseason offensive firepower. The Dolphins aren’t much of an offense either, but at least they have the ability to put up points.

Ryan Tannehill has been playing well during his brief time on the field so far this preseason, so with Matt Ryan likely getting several series in the first half, I like their chances of scoring easily in this one.

 

The Sharp Pick
With the likelihood of scoring coming easy in this one, especially in the first half, I like the over for the game on this one. The Falcons’ offense has looked good even without the starters in the game, scoring 23.5 points per game in the first two preseason games.

In the last one, Ryan played very little and was 6-11 with 78 yards. He should be in the game for the first half in this one, while Matt Schaub and Matt Simms play mop up duty in the second half. Both of the Falcons’ backups should easily still move the ball once Ryan is done, so assuming Ryan scores a few touchdowns in the first half, I think we can expect a few more in the second.

For the Dolphins, one has to hope that Tannehill throws a few more touchdowns in the first half like he did in Week 2, because their offense is going to fall off a cliff once he comes out of the game. Tannehill was 12-for-20 last week with two TD passes, so if we get that again, the over is my NFL pick on Thursday.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 43½ -110
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
NFL Preseason Record: (6-1 +5.28 units)

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